Dry-day order gave no clear current-minus-future catch link in four Sweden and Madagascar samples in 2019-2020

We tested whether the order of dry days had a collection-window link to flying-insect catches that differed from its later-window link. We used 5,804 measured catches in Sweden and Madagascar. The exposure was the longest dry run minus its exact mean over all day orders with the same dry-day count and interval length. Four trap and season models controlled dry-day frequency, rainfall amount, temperature and duration. Current minus future slope estimates ranged from -0.035 to +0.023 log(1 + grams/day) per excess run day. All four adjusted intervals included zero. All 20 planned sensitivity intervals also included zero. Early Madagascar had a negative unadjusted interval, but the sign did not repeat in late Madagascar. These results do not show no weather effect. One survey year per country, coarse weather, selected catches and few time clusters limit inference. Catches mix abundance with flight activity. The package gives a dry-run method, code, aggregate results, a figure and independent numerical checks.

insect biomass · dry spells · weather timing · observation bias · Sweden · Madagascar · permutation expectation