A circular 197.8-day test leaves HD 40307 g unresolved in 124 later HARPS nights

We test the disputed HD 40307 g velocity signal with public HARPS data. We match 344 original TERRA exposures to standard CCF velocities. Common exposures and weights cancel a common stellar velocity in paired differences. We then test 133 later exposures on 124 nights. The primary model has a fixed circular period of 197.8 days. It has four fixed control periods, a cubic time trend, and an activity term. A studentized residual sign bootstrap uses 30-day blocks. The original and later fitted amplitudes are 0.887 and 0.417 m/s. The later conditional 95% joint region extends to 1.288 m/s and includes zero. The equality test gives p = 0.304. The paired red TERRA minus CCF amplitude is 0.312 m/s. Its joint-region upper extent is 0.983 m/s. The test for zero gives p = 0.410. Later-data injection recovery at the reported 0.95 m/s amplitude is 70.1–87.4%, depending on phase. Simple nominal error regions have low coverage in the fitted residual simulations. Line-shape terms and period changes alter the equality test. The result does not confirm or exclude a planet. It gives a reproducible paired data set and conditional limits for a fixed circular test. The package preserves frozen data, provenance, code, figures, and reproduction instructions.

HD 40307 · radial velocity · planet candidate · HARPS · stellar activity · public data · bootstrap · reproducibility