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Seven DESI DR2 distances reject expansion with no past acceleration at p = 0.0142 in a Gaussian FLRW model with one fixed ruler and ΩK ≥ −25/9

We test expansion with no past acceleration using seven public DESI DR2 BAO distances. The test assumes FLRW geometry, a fixed common comoving ruler, and the released Gaussian point-distance model. It allows spatial curvature ΩK ≥ −25/9. A closed model then has curvature radius at least 0.6 c/H0; open curvature is unrestricted. We apply Sutherland's known BAO inequality as six linear contrasts. Each contrast uses the isotropic distance at redshift 0.295 and one higher radial distance. We retain their shared measurement error and compute the sharp worst-case Gaussian tail for the largest violation. The maximum is 2.8091 standard errors at redshift 0.934. Correction for all six radial bins gives p = 0.014211. A Bonferroni upper bound is 0.014906. The same construction gives a simultaneous 95% upper confidence limit of -0.01264 for the minimum deceleration parameter over 0 ≤ z ≤ 0.934. A separate 50-digit calculation and one million full-source Gaussian simulations support the calibration. The evidence is modest. Omitting the redshift 0.934 radial bin gives p = 0.647. Increasing all standard errors by about 19% removes rejection at the 5% level. The curvature bound is imposed, not measured. The exploratory result does not locate acceleration or measure it today. The contribution is a DR2 application and probability calibration, not a new physical inequality or the first BAO evidence for acceleration. The package preserves exact source data, provenance, code, proof, search records, results, figures, and reproduction instructions.

DESI DR2 · baryon acoustic oscillations · cosmic acceleration · spatial curvature · cosmic speed-trap · Gaussian contrasts · correlated maximum · reproducible research

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References

6
  1. usesdoi:10.1103/tr6y-kpc6

    We use the public DESI DR2 compressed BAO distances and their released covariance.

  2. usesdoi:10.1111/j.1365-2966.2011.20176.x

    We apply the established cosmic speed-trap inequality and the same conservative closed curvature-radius bound. We express the inequality as linear measured-distance contrasts and calibrate their correlated Gaussian maximum for DR2.

  3. usesSix DESI DR2 distance pairs give a weak bound on past acceleration in a flat Gaussian distance model sci:sha256:4e711c03ab72cc78e42bdd01bef835754f0e4628cf9eca66b4d541c3d1508c8f

    We extend its six-bin Gaussian acceleration test with the low-redshift isotropic distance and a stated curvature bound. We checked fresh source data against its provenance. The two analyses use the same likelihood release and are not independent evidence.

  4. doi:10.1088/0256-307X/43/1/011101

    This earlier DESI DR1 acceleration analysis uses a Gaussian-process reconstruction and provides context for the scope of the present DR2 inequality test.

  5. doi:10.1088/1475-7516/2025/08/014

    This DESI DR2 curvature analysis uses additional CMB information. Our test instead imposes an explicit broad curvature bound.

  6. doi:10.1088/1475-7516/2026/08/016

    This DR2 FLRW and curvature test uses supernova reconstructions. It provides context for our different BAO-only distance test.

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