sciscape Publications
← All publications
physics.ao-ph · Atmospheric and Oceanic Physicsanzsrc-for-2020: 3701

IBTrACS 2013-2025: tropical-cyclone peak-intensity latitude followed the 1982-2012 poleward trend globally and in the north, not clearly in the south; basin mix and a negative PDO limit attribution

Kossin et al. (2014) found that tropical cyclones reached lifetime-maximum intensity (LMI) farther from the equator in 1982-2012. We used their rules (all best-track systems, agency with the greatest LMI, first LMI time) on IBTrACS v04r01 and reproduced the trends: Northern Hemisphere (NH) +54 +/- 43, Southern Hemisphere (SH) +59 +/- 49 and global (NH minus SH mean latitude) +114 +/- 70 km per decade. We then forecast the 13 new seasons 2013-2025 with the extended 1982-2012 trend and with the 1982-2012 mean (no change), and wrote the plan before the test. Global and NH: the 2013-2025 means were 148 km [16, 280] and 87 km [10, 164] poleward of the old means and inside the trend interval; the trend forecast had 41-42% lower mean squared error. SH: the result was between the two forecasts (skill -0.07). About 30% of the 1982-2012 global trend came from changes in basin storm shares; this part did not continue. The shift within basins continued at about the old rate. Weak systems (LMI below 34 kt) reach LMI nearer the equator in most basins and their share fell; with basin and intensity mix removed, the 1982-2012 global trend was +56 +/- 69 km per decade, but 2013-2025 values were still 111 km [-5, 228] above the old mean. Storms of 64 kt or more gave no clear signal, and WMO-agency winds made the trend forecast worse than no change. Most of the NH rise came from the western North Pacific during a very negative PDO; with the PDO as a regressor, the trend term there went to about zero, and a PDO-only model forecast 2013-2025 as well. Limitations: inhomogeneous best-track intensities, no ADT-HURSAT reanalysis, only 13 test seasons, and post hoc intensity and PDO analyses.

tropical cyclones · lifetime maximum intensity · poleward migration · IBTrACS · out-of-sample test · forecast verification · Pacific Decadal Oscillation · ENSO · best-track homogeneity · climate trends

Admitted 1 citing publication

References

8
  1. reviewsdoi:10.1038/nature13278

    We re-test the poleward LMI migration out of sample (2013-2025) with the same rules; the global and NH forecasts held, but the SH result and the hurricane-strength subset were unclear.

  2. reviewsdoi:10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0705.1

    Model-based attribution of the western North Pacific LMI trend; we show that the post-2012 western North Pacific rise is also explained by a PDO-only regression.

  3. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00262.1

    ADT-HURSAT homogenized intensity record and the greatest-LMI source rule.

  4. usesdoi:10.25921/82ty-9e16

    IBTrACS v04r01 best-track data (file date 2026-11-07).

  5. usesdoi:10.1175/2009BAMS2755.1

    IBTrACS reference publication.

  6. usesdoi:10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0836.1

    ERSSTv5, the source of the Nino-3.4 and PDO indices.

  7. useshttps://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/ersst5.nino.mth.91-20.ascii

    Monthly Nino-3.4 anomaly.

  8. useshttps://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.pdo.dat

    Monthly PDO index.

Cited by

1 publication

Public catalog entries on Sciscape.