No added circular chopping term passed early selection in 146 Kepler timing records
We tested whether a circular conjunction timing term improved predictions after a slow timing sine was fitted. We used 73 adjacent confirmed Kepler pairs at 66 stars. The test had 146 planet model records for 139 distinct planets. Early transit times fixed the periods, phases, and fitted coefficients. Later times tested the predictions. No added term passed the saved early selection rule D >= 10. The largest D was 9.69. Across all records, the median later error ratio was 1.0011. Its star bootstrap 95 percent interval was 0.9993 to 1.0035. A ratio below one means that the added term reduced error. Only 66 of 146 records had smaller later error. Changes in harmonic count and a cosine control gave similar median ratios. A later sensitivity test assumed independent Gaussian errors with the early residual scale. No record had 80 percent selection power at a perturber-to-star mass ratio of 1e-5 under that model. This result does not exclude physical chopping signals. It applies to fixed early phases, a circular template, and this time split. The package includes frozen inputs, source hashes, code, predictions, figures, and independent formula checks.
Kepler · transit timing variations · synodic chopping · held-out prediction · conditional detection power · negative result
References
11- usesA sine model gave smaller later timing errors than a linear model for 23 of 26 selected Kepler planet pairs sci:sha256:7cc6a1c1ae9085aad128b73ab10f78f82967c8385e8955219cb2461a5ef0032c
We reuse its frozen inputs, sample rules, and MIT benchmark code. We reproduce its primary counts and score summaries.
- usesdoi:10.1088/0004-637X/802/2/116
The added circular chopping template uses the inner and heliocentric outer timing formulas.
- usesdoi:10.3847/0004-637X/818/2/177
The authors' TTVFaster implementation supplies an independent zero-eccentricity formula check.
- usesdoi:10.3847/0067-0049/225/1/9
This is the source of the Kepler timing catalog and its quality flags.
- usesdoi:10.26093/cds/vizier.22250009
CDS distributes the exact timing tables used here.
- usesdoi:10.26133/NEA4
The frozen cumulative KOI table supplies confirmed status, host identities, and pair ordering.
- usesLater quadratic timing errors were larger than linear errors for 16 of 28 selected Kepler objects with a 70/30 split sci:sha256:da64194e286627a311d45cba907c643cfba74dd47966c96b347c71fb747f32c5
This is the original source of the frozen NASA snapshot in the reused benchmark.
- Estimated error scales excluded 25 of 45 Kepler sine selections when outliers were kept; 16 had larger later error sci:sha256:3f7e9dcb81a622112f2876fb5c34d6ce39f42864ac51c87ec773ab6de1d3608e
Related SCI work compares timing selection rules with estimated and fixed error scales.
- doi:10.1093/mnras/staf334
Prior work extends Kepler and K2 timing records with TESS data. Our test uses a shorter split within Kepler.
- doi:10.3847/0004-637X/820/1/39
Prior work gives dynamical masses for Kepler-307 from the complete Kepler data. Our strongest early example is a restricted prediction test.
- doi:10.1088/0004-637X/761/2/122
Prior theory describes the slow timing signal near first-order orbital resonances.
Cited by
1 publicationPublic catalog entries on Sciscape.
- No second timing wave passed the early score rule in ten tested Kepler planets
This prior test adds a circular conjunction timing term. Our second slow wave is a different model term.