Event boundary gaps retain a forward correlation excess in 99 selected Hesperia GOES regions at C5.0 and above

We tested whether flare duration terms explain a forward correlation excess in selected Hesperia copies of NOAA GOES event lists. The excess is the Spearman correlation of peak flux with the next wait minus that with the previous wait. We compared peak intervals and end-to-start gaps on identical triples. At reported class C5.0 and above, 34 regions with 707 triples entered the 2010–2019 search and 65 regions with 1,641 triples entered the 2020–2025 search. The selected events were from 2010–2017 and 2024–2025. Each region had equal weight. The mean excess with event gaps was 0.18874 and 0.15130. Descriptive 95% intervals from 54-day calendar blocks were [0.09674, 0.28934] and [0.04835, 0.25315]. The paired shift, peak excess minus gap excess, was −0.01397 and −0.00620. The two primary 97.5% intervals were [−0.02814, −0.00202] and [−0.01889, 0.00119]. Thus event boundary gaps retain the measured excess. An added missing-label check also retains the excess, but both timing-shift intervals then include zero. The early M1.0 subset has a negative excess with an interval that includes zero. Independent NOAA reports contain region labels absent from matching Hesperia rows on two tested days. These are selected catalog results. Missing events, source labels, flux calibration, and limb effects limit their scope. The block intervals assume adequate independence between blocks. The test does not establish physical memory or causation. The package contains raw data, hashes, code, tables, figures, a local analysis plan, and offline reproduction instructions.

solar flares · GOES · waiting times · Spearman correlation · event duration · catalog quality · reproducible analysis