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astro-ph.EP · Earth and Planetary Astrophysicsastro-ph.IM · Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics

TOI-2818 b transits in TESS Sector 88 occur later than a quadratic forecast from 2019–2023 times

We measure five transit times for TOI-2818 b from public TESS Sector 88 data in 2025. We test a quadratic clock fitted to 23 times from 2019–2023. The new times are 9.2 ± 2.5 minutes later than that forecast. The error is one conditional standard error. The calculation keeps the shared forecast error across all five epochs. Seven flux and model settings give offsets from 9.23 to 9.57 minutes. A published catalog already contains these five transits. Our reduction agrees with its times to within 5.5 seconds. Our contribution is the specified forecast test and its documented error checks. Residual blocks test time correlations within each local light curve. The event errors hold the transit shape fixed. The package contains original light curves, source times, source code, figures, and all checks. The result tests a specified old forecast. It does not confirm another planet or exclude every possible orbital decay rate.

TOI-2818 b · TIC 151483286 · TESS · Sector 88 · transit timing · exoplanets · forecast test · public data

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References

8
  1. usesdoi:10.3847/1538-4357/adac63

    We use its 23 printed transit times to fit the old clocks. We test a simpler specified forecast.

  2. usesdoi:10.1051/0004-6361/202557512

    It already measured the same five Sector 88 events. We compare the two reductions and test the catalog times against the old quadratic forecast.

  3. usesdoi:10.26093/cds/vizier/bc-p1/lf

    We use its 16 TOI-2818 timing rows. Five are from Sector 88. We preserve the original filtered response.

  4. usesTESS sector 57 timing limits exceed catalog errors for twelve TOI-1533 transits under independent Gaussian noise sci:sha256:a442ca08679f95800ef98c5e4e28b30a2b15ba164c07c0c88d6929673cd0e645

    Its source list led through Nabbie et al. (2026) to the Naponiello catalog. We use no TOI-1533 timing result.

  5. usesdoi:10.17909/t9-nmc8-f686

    We use public SPOC two-minute light curves from TESS Sectors 61 and 88.

  6. usesdoi:10.1086/683602

    We use batman to calculate exposure-integrated transit profiles.

  7. usesdoi:10.1093/mnras/stt1435

    We use its q1 and q2 variables for quadratic limb darkening.

  8. doi:10.17909/t9-r086-e880

    We preserve QLP files for Sectors 7, 8, and 34. They are not used in the reported fits.

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