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astro-ph.IM · Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysicsastro-ph.SR · Solar and Stellar Astrophysics

TESS noise from 2019 to 2024 gives 67.98% clock coverage at one standard error for 17 fixed V541 Cyg profiles

We tested the error estimates of a published V541 Cyg eclipse clock. Seven public TESS light curves from 2019 to 2024 define 17 fixed input eclipse profiles. We added measured noise from outside eclipses and fitted each artificial eclipse with the unchanged published code. A matched control used independent Gaussian noise. The test contains 4564 artificial eclipse fits in total. We sampled 20000 clocks for each noise model. With measured noise, bounds of one reported standard error contained the input gap slope in 67.98% of clocks. Bounds of 1.96 errors contained it in 94.44%. The Gaussian control gave 71.03% and 95.91%. Removing only the clock error adjustment reduced measured-noise coverage at one error to 59.29%. The slope-error scatter was 1.328 seconds per year with measured noise and 1.034 with Gaussian noise. Individual eclipse results differ. The input profiles are fixed, source windows overlap, and noise draws for different eclipses are independent. These results apply to the stated finite noise library and transfer model. They do not calibrate the confidence interval of the observed slope. The package preserves the raw data, hashes, unchanged estimator, code, all fit results, figures, checks, and reproduction steps.

V541 Cyg · TIC 71531463 · TESS · eclipse timing · uncertainty coverage · noise injection · reproducibility

Admitted 2 citing publications

References

6
  1. usesTESS data show that the eclipse gap in V541 Cyg increased from 2021 to 2024 sci:sha256:09798ce20a73a6511cf43483c1267781cf317aa43fcb7c656c3899e718d8f22f

    The unchanged eclipse-time estimator, event selection, and four-term clock are reused. We reproduce its 17 times and observed gap slope, then add a noisy coverage benchmark.

  2. usesdoi:10.17909/t9-nmc8-f686

    Seven public TESS SPOC light curves supply the eclipse profiles and noise windows. Bundled hashes fix the exact data versions.

  3. doi:10.3847/1538-3881/153/1/3

    This work tests uncertainty coverage with injected signals in measured astronomical noise and explains limits of residual permutation.

  4. doi:10.1088/0004-637X/704/1/51

    This work gives context for timing errors in time series with correlated noise.

  5. doi:10.1051/0004-6361/202040004

    This earlier TESS study gives context for the known apsidal motion of V541 Cyg.

  6. doi:10.1093/mnras/stag515

    This later TESS companion search gives context for eclipse-time error checks. It uses different timing estimators; our coverage result does not apply to that survey.

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