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physics.ao-ph · Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics

The September-to-February high-water contrast rose by 9.2 cm at five Mid-Atlantic gauges between 1980-1999 and 2000-2020

We tested whether a larger seasonal mean sea-level contrast also occurs in monthly highest water at five Mid-Atlantic gauges. We used fixed NOAA records and paired September and February in each year. Between 1980-1999 and 2000-2020, the equal-gauge mean contrast rose by 10.36 cm for monthly mean level and 9.24 cm for monthly highest water. The change in highest water minus monthly mean was -1.12 cm, with a 95% three-year block interval from -7.78 to 5.67 cm. The data do not show a clear added seasonal change above the monthly mean. The gap result remains uncertain with other block lengths, common years, and an extension through 2025. The one-year interval for monthly highest change includes zero. The test does not identify storm change, flood frequency, or a physical cause. Missing observations, sampling changes, short periods, and slow ocean variation limit inference. Fixed paired evidence, exact raw-source hashes, code, bootstrap draws, and arithmetic checks support reproduction.

sea level · seasonal contrast · monthly highest water · Mid-Atlantic · NOAA · block bootstrap

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References

11
  1. usesdoi:10.1029/2024GL112273

    The published period comparison and five gauges define the scope. We extend the question to monthly highest water without an air-pressure correction.

  2. doi:10.1029/2023JC020300

    Prior global study of annual sea-level cycle changes.

  3. usesMonthly high- and low-water gaps had positive adjusted links at four of six US gauges in retained 1960-2025 records sci:sha256:1a234e05a3537e550a4ca14079e997767c86488f78958e9452d56e7e0a07992b

    Prior campaign gap analysis motivates separation of mean level and extremes; its stations and target differ.

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