An early ZTF model predicts later eclipses near TOI-1546.01 within a Gaia period window

We tested a published nearby-binary lead for TOI-1546.01 with a retrospective time split of 1,504 ZTF observations. A six-harmonic model fitted to 940 early observations within a fixed Gaia period window predicts 564 later observations with RMSE 0.249 mag. The listed TOI-period model gives 0.287 mag; the exact Gaia-period model gives 0.243 mag. The early-model mean squared error gain over the listed TOI period is 0.0207 mag squared, with a conditional 95 percent night-bootstrap interval of 0.0096 to 0.0335. Nine model settings retain the gain. Two tested daily aliases predict less well. An exploratory later-data window test gives unequal primary and secondary eclipses. Global errors do not clearly distinguish half and double periods. The target was selected after a prior full-data study, so this is not a new confirmation sample. The period difference is only 1.06 quoted TOI standard errors. No TESS source location, new planet, or new source association is established. We preserve the frozen data, hashes, code, predictions, bootstrap draws and figures.

TESS · TOI-1546.01 · ZTF · Gaia DR3 · eclipsing binary · chronological prediction · daily alias · retrospective test