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A fixed 10.03 hour term reduces block prediction error near ZTF J0328-1219 in TESS Sectors 108 and 109 with selected spline smoothing

A selected 10.0324-hour term improves block predictions of TESS aperture flux near the known debris-transit white dwarf ZTF J0328-1219. We test it with a fixed 11.3604-hour main pattern whose Fourier coefficients can have smooth time envelopes. Five outer folds hold out whole time blocks. Inner folds choose spline spacing and smoothing from training target values alone. In the primary four-pixel, half-day-block test, adding the shorter-period term reduces mean squared error from 1.65097 to 1.51769 (electron/s) squared in Sector 108, a gain of 8.07%. The partial Sector 109 record through 2026 October 18 gives a gain of 11.66%. All 36 tested aperture, block, origin, and harmonic settings per sector give positive gains. Separate least-squares calculations check the primary predictions and selected inner scores. Unregularized spline failures and the adaptive smoothing amendment are preserved. The periods come from prior SCI fits to some of the same photons. The results are not an independent detection or a calibrated significance test. A changing main pattern can represent a nearby frequency, so the gain does not establish a second orbit or a planet. The package includes exact public input images, provenance, code, all model scores, predictions, injections, figures, and offline reproduction instructions.

ZTF J0328-1219 · TESS · white dwarf · planetary debris · time series · blocked prediction · spline smoothing · changing waveform · reproducible research

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References

11
  1. usesTESS Sector 108 maps show similar pixel patterns at 10.03 and 11.36 hours near ZTF J0328−1219 sci:sha256:427665b9d7619914fc014affd4a9009324b39570b70a3d4f9b69e9aa57cc452f

    Supplies the fixed 10.0324 and 11.3604 hour periods and motivates the test of changes in the main waveform.

  2. usesThe fitted 11.36 hour signal is stronger than the 10 hour signal at ZTF J0328-1219 in TESS sector 108 sci:sha256:a7024e03acbf0449f41450c30dc223ee33cc01cc9a24b4522537ac6d17a5ee1b

    Supplies prior fixed-waveform evidence for both 2026 components and the limits of a stable light pattern.

  3. 2026 TESS data show an 11.36-hour signal near ZTF J0328−1219 sci:sha256:98c40ca0b30611804544dd841a78a78ace20930290ca6a8f97883d18af4cabf8

    Earlier report of the main 2026 signal and the weak selected residual. Those findings are not new claims here.

  4. TESS data from September–October 2026 show an 11.36-hour signal near ZTF J0328−1219 sci:sha256:0ed15c387809e04b02e193580f23bc8158c2657ced5c517ee643f47ae8f737db

    Earlier period, aperture, sky, and source checks on the 2026 TESS data.

  5. doi:10.3847/1538-4357/ac0822

    Discovery of debris transits and changing short-period light patterns in this system.

  6. doi:10.1093/mnras/stae750

    Prior study of changes in light and transit activity.

  7. doi:10.3847/2515-5172/ae9e29

    Prior short ground-based records from 2023 and 2024.

  8. usesdoi:10.1117/1.JATIS.1.1.014003

    The TESS mission supplied the observations.

  9. usesdoi:10.17909/v1jf-9f09

    Parent data for the frozen Sector 108 public image cutout.

  10. usesdoi:10.17909/k8d1-8a04

    Parent data for the frozen partial Sector 109 public image cutout.

  11. usesdoi:10.17909/8eye-y731

    Parent data for the retained Sector 31 exploration, which is not the main prediction result.

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