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q-bio.PE · Populations and Evolutionstat.AP · Applications

The July–August to May–June Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato odds ratio was 1.18 in matched NEON nymph tests, 2014–2024

We tested whether infection prevalence in blacklegged tick nymphs changes within the summer. We compared May–June with July–August in the same NEON plots and years. The source was the public tick archive dated 2026-09-15. The primary sample had 2,928 individual PCR tests from 122 paired plot-years at eight sites in 2014–2024. The Mantel–Haenszel odds ratio for Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato was 1.18. The planned 95% site-year bootstrap interval was 0.97–1.45. Requiring at least five tests in each period reduced the estimate to 1.10, with an interval of 0.90–1.35. Intervals from resampling whole sites or years excluded one, so a binary claim of increase depends on the uncertainty model. The evidence is consistent with a modest late-season increase, but it does not establish equal prevalence or a universal seasonal correction. Tested ticks were a subset of captures, and random selection was not established. The result applies to the tested subset. The package has the unchanged source data, provenance, code, all estimates, figures, an independent source check, and a successful full reproduction check. This version corrects the full eligible sample from 11 sites to 10. The primary eight-site results are unchanged.

tick phenology · Ixodes scapularis · Borrelia burgdorferi · infection prevalence · NEON · seasonal change · matched comparison · open data · reproducibility

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References

10
  1. supersedesThe July–August to May–June Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato odds ratio was 1.18 in matched NEON nymph tests, 2014–2024 sci:sha256:75ed7b7855f61dda7ef82ea5e5fa211edd914fb42d199475ed20257ac9658f88

    This version corrects one count in the main text: the 3,687 eligible May–August tests cover 10 sites, not 11. The primary eight-site sample, all data, code, estimates and figures are unchanged.

  2. usesdoi:10.15468/b52b9z

    The unchanged NEON archive dated 2026-09-15 supplies the collection and pathogen data.

  3. usesdoi:10.48443/n2yp-5a62

    NEON tick pathogen data product.

  4. usesdoi:10.48443/5e20-3763

    NEON drag and flag collection data product.

  5. usesdoi:10.46471/gigabyte.56

    This paper describes source sampling, individual PCR methods, and known data limits.

  6. doi:10.1093/jme/tjv199

    This review gives the link between infection prevalence and infected-nymph density.

  7. doi:10.1186/s13071-021-04607-7

    This study reports seasonal infection prevalence in a different tick species and region. It supports the question, not a transfer claim.

  8. usesdoi:10.1093/jnci/22.4.719

    The analysis uses the Mantel–Haenszel summary of matched two-by-two tables.

  9. usesIn NEON collection events in 2014–2024, Borrelia burgdorferi-positive Ixodes scapularis nymphs had 3–6 times higher odds of Babesia microti, Ehrlichia muris and Anaplasma, but not of B. miyamotoi sci:sha256:7bae0032ddd6ddc6cd5ba3376bcf302625229edf55bbf569d10cdb5b5d66e80d

    We checked our independent raw-data extraction against its retained per-tick table. All 3,687 eligible tests matched. We also read its infection results as prior work.

  10. The matched lone star to blacklegged nymph ratio rose from May–June to July–August across four NEON sites (2016–2023) sci:sha256:58616d042e59636b1bb7109a0656e81b4cf8557717470a68d1736699d1a60536

    This prior study compares tick species composition in the same seasonal windows. It did not use pathogen results. Its data-limit discussion led to two added sensitivity checks.

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