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Published BJD-TDB ephemerides reduced the median absolute timing offset from 6.63 to 0.62 minutes for 129 TESS planets

Can complete published ephemerides remove large timing offsets in a composite-table test? We reuse the measured times from a prior SCI study of 153 TESS planets. We select 129 planets with a complete period and reference-time pair in one NASA Exoplanet Archive PS row. The row must state BJD-TDB and have errors for both values. Its publication month must end before the tested sector starts. We select the latest eligible month without use of the measured offset. For the same 129 measured times, the median absolute offset falls from 6.63 to 0.62 minutes. The number of offsets above three stated standard deviations falls from 29 to 10. The absolute offset falls for 92 planets. We also fit all 12 public SPOC 120-second light curves for the three largest original flags: HAT-P-16 b, KELT-18 b and WASP-20 b. For the main fit, their latest tested sector times agree with those pairs within 1.5 combined standard deviations when covariance is zero. For HAT-P-16 b and WASP-20 b, the old and selected periods are equal. The complete reference pair alone changes the prediction by 13.5 and 13.7 minutes. These offsets do not require a period change. The main sample reuses prior measurements and omits period-time covariance. Its ten remaining flags need separate checks. We do not report a new planet or exclude real timing changes. The package preserves the code, source data, selection records, new time measurements, controls, figures, and reproduction instructions.

TESS · transit timing · ephemeris · hot Jupiters · NASA Exoplanet Archive · data provenance · reproducibility

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References

8
  1. challengesTESS 2-minute transit times of 153 bright hot Jupiters missed the NASA Exoplanet Archive default ephemeris predictions by more than 3 sigma for 33 planets (sectors 21-107) sci:sha256:1895bf428f65ddb5d621f1e1b67e6fe70b4074599f4ced66ffdc1cf0a99b69fe

    We reuse its transit times and quality selection. Complete published reference pairs remove most large offsets in the eligible sample. This limits the inference that prediction errors need a general increase.

  2. usesdoi:10.26133/NEA12

    The PS table supplies complete published period and reference-time pairs. We preserve the query and table response.

  3. usesdoi:10.26133/NEA13

    The prior study used this composite table. We preserve its source snapshot and compare the same measured times.

  4. usesdoi:10.3847/1538-4365/ac9da4

    Kokori et al. 2023 supplies 91 selected ephemerides. These include the KELT-18 b and WASP-20 b reference pairs.

  5. usesdoi:10.1093/mnras/stae854

    Yalcinkaya et al. 2024 supplies the HAT-P-16 b reference pair and four other selected pairs.

  6. usesdoi:10.3847/1538-4365/ac545b

    Ivshina and Winn 2022 is prior work on TESS transit times. It supplies eight selected reference pairs.

  7. usesdoi:10.1117/1.JATIS.1.1.014003

    The TESS mission supplies the public light curves for the independent time measurements.

  8. usesdoi:10.1086/683602

    The batman software supplies the transit model. We integrate the model over each exposure.

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