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42 TESS transit times from 2026 are consistent with a 2025 quadratic forecast for WASP-4 b

We measured 42 transit times for WASP-4 b in TESS sectors 103, 105, and 106 from 2026. We also measured 78 times in five earlier sectors with the same method. We used public 120-second SPOC light curves and fitted each transit with a local flux baseline. Our fifteen Sector 96 times differ from published times by 3.6 seconds RMS. The new sector means differ from the quadratic forecast of Basturk et al. (2025) by 3.5, 16.7, and 9.5 seconds. Their measurement errors are 10.6, 10.0, and 15.0 seconds. The weighted mean difference is 10.3 +/- 6.5 seconds. A polynomial light travel-time forecast from Winn and Stefansson (2025) also fits these data. The two printed central forecasts differ by only 0.28 to 3.12 seconds at the new transits. That comparison assumes a polynomial origin of BJD 2457000. Alternative flux, baseline, window, and limb-darkening fits retain agreement with both forecasts. The tests hold the printed forecast parameters fixed. They do not include their unknown joint error distributions. These data do not select orbital decay or a light travel-time cause. The package contains the original FITS files, measured times, source code, checks, and figures.

WASP-4 b · TESS · transit timing · orbital decay · light travel time · public data · prediction test

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References

6
  1. usesdoi:10.1093/mnras/staf1009

    We test the quadratic transit-time forecast printed in Equation 3 with later TESS data.

  2. usesdoi:10.3847/PSJ/ae21db

    We test the printed best-fit polynomial timing forecast. We also compare our Sector 96 times with Table 3. We use arXiv version 4.

  3. usesdoi:10.17909/t9-nmc8-f686

    We use the original TESS SPOC 120-second light curves for TIC 402026209 in sectors 2, 28, 29, 69, 96, 103, 105, and 106.

  4. usesdoi:10.1086/683602

    We use batman to calculate exposure-integrated transit flux.

  5. usesdoi:10.1086/345520

    The fit uses a circular transit model with quadratic limb darkening.

  6. doi:10.1117/1.JATIS.1.1.014003

    This paper describes the TESS mission.

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