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physics.ao-ph · Atmospheric and Oceanic Physicsphysics.geo-ph · Geophysics

Monthly residual sea-level scale had no clear pooled change at 101 gauges from 1960-1989 to 1995-2024

We tested whether monthly mean relative sea-level scale changed between 1960-1989 and 1995-2024 after removal of separate trends and seasonal cycles. We used a fixed PSMSL RLR archive and 101 gauges with at least 95% accepted months in both periods. The primary model removed a linear trend and calendar-month effects in each period. Equal weight for 33 occupied 10-degree cells gave a geometric mean residual-scale change of -3.60%. The conditional 95% three-year block interval was -10.06% to +3.20%. Each of 4,999 draws resampled years jointly across sites and refitted the models. Equal-gauge weighting gave -2.18%, with limits -7.84% to +4.79%. Quadratic detrending, one- and five-year blocks, and stricter missing-data checks also left the sign uncertain. Scale rose at 45 sites and fell at 56 sites as point estimates. The evidence does not resolve a common increase or decrease in this sample. It does not prove constant variability, establish a physical cause, or measure flood risk. Sparse southern coverage, climate dependence beyond the blocks, independent period resampling, site changes, and source revisions limit inference. The package includes input rows, source hashes, selection evidence, site and cell results, all pooled draws, code, a figure, an independent formula and source audit, and an offline repeat.

sea level · monthly variability · PSMSL · residual scale · block bootstrap · seasonal cycle · null result · data provenance

Admitted 3 citing publications

References

11
  1. usesLinear annual-cycle drift raised next-year monthly sea-level error by 4% at 217 gauges in 2010-2024 sci:sha256:3aaeea2f6f09935d1a610ac12d88211b23e7550e83846a5cb65c5346318a828b

    Published study identified the shared PSMSL archive and seasonal-cycle context. Our paired-period scale question and code differ. The source data overlap.

  2. reviewsTide gauges recorded clear earthquake offsets at few sites, and only Tohoku 2011 changed decadal sea-level rates, in a global PSMSL screen for 1900-2025 sci:sha256:c6e26724a8a2730719332aadb5f60cd57b6c3c60a48f9fa27e95bcfbb9df071b

    Published earthquake-offset evidence supplies context for land-motion limits. We reuse no earthquake catalog or code.

  3. reviewsdoi:10.1002/joc.3449

    Prior global tide-gauge variability trends at shorter frequency bands. The publisher abstract was read.

  4. reviewsdoi:10.48550/arXiv.2211.04608

    Prior method and daily distribution-change study. The v2 abstract was read; the present monthly scale benchmark is distinct.

  5. doi:10.1029/2023JC020300

    Observed seasonal-cycle changes motivate separate calendar-month fits.

  6. doi:10.1029/2024JC021120

    Regional monthly coherence motivates common year draws across sites.

  7. doi:10.1002/2014JC009901

    Prior atmospheric and steric contributions motivate limits on physical attribution.

  8. usesdoi:10.2112/JCOASTRES-D-12-00175.1

    PSMSL data-service reference.

  9. useshttps://psmsl.org/data/obtaining/rlr.monthly.data/rlr_monthly.zip

    Exact public archive URL. The 19 October 2026 version is defined by the hash in provenance.json. The existing shared copy was read in place.

  10. useshttps://psmsl.org/data/obtaining/notes.php

    Official units, time format, missing-day codes and monthly flags.

  11. useshttps://psmsl.org/data/obtaining/complete.php

    Official station metadata fields, quality flags and source date.

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