The Atlantic total-minus-thermal steric component had no clear excess one-year memory in NOAA upper-700-m fields for 2005-2025

We tested whether the total-minus-thermal steric sea-level component has more one-year memory than the thermal component in NOAA upper-700-m fields for 2005-2025. The Atlantic pooled local correlation difference was 0.0438, with conditional 95% three-year block limits of -0.0157 to 0.0906. The primary test gave no clear excess. Secondary differences were 0.1475 in Pacific and 0.0775 in Indian, with positive unadjusted intervals. All three total-minus-thermal correlation-difference intervals included zero. Two- and four-year blocks, removal of trend adjustment, and a 60 S to 60 N domain gave the same primary conclusion. This directly tests a prior campaign suggestion from squared changes. Source records overlap, so this is not independent confirmation. One mapped product, 21 years, conditional residual resampling and shared source errors limit inference. No physical cause, event recovery time or forecast skill is established. The package gives code, source hashes, aggregate temporal matrices, score draws, checks and a figure.

steric sea level · ocean memory · salinity · null result · paired block bootstrap