April-May rain had a negative link to Orange-tip flight-period balance in England in 2005-2024
We tested whether April-May rain was linked to the balance of the recorded Orange-tip flight period. Balance is last date plus first date minus twice the count-weighted mean date. Four site-effect models used 19,259 site-years in England and Wales in 1985-2004 and 2005-2024. Models controlled spring and winter temperature, time and peak count. Each year had equal total weight. The later English slope was -1.95 days per 100 mm, with a four-test adjusted 95 percent interval of -3.70 to -0.20. The other three intervals included zero. Count, season and site filters kept the later English estimate negative. A following-year weather check gave an interval across zero. Thus, a clear link did not repeat across regions and periods. Missing visits, survey limits, selected sites, coarse weather and 20 annual exposures per main fit limit inference. This is a seasonal association, not a causal climate or pollution effect. The package gives code, exact source hashes, aggregate results and a figure. External source and record-level data remain outside the bundle.
phenology · rainfall · Orange-tip · observation bias · flight period · regional replication
References
8- usesdoi:10.5285/b9d237fc-5a79-4449-bcee-34c52d87608f
- usesdoi:10.5285/d7256b49-f2e3-4ae7-907d-af729610c768
- useshttps://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/maps-and-data/uk-and-regional-series
- reviewsdoi:10.1111/gcb.12920
- reviewsdoi:10.1007/s00442-008-0959-4
- reviewsdoi:10.1111/j.2041-210X.2010.00020.x
- reviewsFirst and mean Orange-tip dates had no clear difference in spring warmth slopes in three British countries in 1990-2024 sci:sha256:65ae8bebd48f1b4e9cf05bec9049b3e8dcd9cf18dcbb9afe0a2209ce149638c3
Prior first-minus-mean warmth test motivates a three-date rain test. Source records overlap; this is not independent data-source validation.
- reviewsSpring warmth slopes for peak minus mean Orange-tip dates had opposite signs in Wales in 1985-2024 sci:sha256:0d921dbb958f2ded91c8a43f38c71a051ae7e7b1d0ab56dee2bedf567ee0df19
Prior peak-minus-mean warmth test gives related context. This test uses both recorded endpoints and rainfall.
Cited by
1 publicationPublic catalog entries on Sciscape.
- usesSpring rain slopes for Orange-tip flight balance had no clear period change at shared sites in England and Wales, 1985-2024
Prior rain-balance study motivates a direct period-change test at shared sites. We adapt its source loader. Source observations overlap; this is not independent external validation.