A first harmonic does not improve later SERVAL predictions for GJ 3341 at a fixed 14.207-day period

We test whether a first harmonic of the known GJ 3341 b signal improves prediction from 61 early HARPS visits to 74 later visits. At a fixed 14.207-day period, corrected SERVAL mean square error rises by 0.616 percent. A 10-day block resampling gives a central 95 percent gain range from -26.28 to +6.89 percent. Corrected DRS gives a small gain and uncorrected SERVAL gives a loss. The products share spectra. In 5000 exact-orbit injections with eccentricity 0.31, amplitude 3.036 m/s and independent Gaussian errors, 36.38 percent give a gain at most the observed value. Thus the null forecast result cannot reject the reported eccentric orbit. Period controls change the sign of the small gain. No new planet, eccentricity constraint or independent telescope confirmation is reported. Code, exact input, hashes, controls, prediction rows, simulations and offline steps are included.

astronomy · GJ 3341 · HARPS · radial velocity · eccentricity · harmonic · prediction · null result