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The mean gap from wood anemone flowering to beech leaf unfolding was 4.5 days larger at 54 Swiss stations in 1996–2025 than in 1961–1990

We tested whether the recorded date gap between wood anemone 50% flowering and beech 50% leaf unfolding changed. We used open MeteoSwiss records at 54 fixed stations with at least 15 paired years in each period. We compared 1961–1990 with 1996–2025 and gave stations equal weight. The 2,644 paired records gave a mean gap of 23.25 days in the early period and 27.75 days in the late period. Anemone flowering moved 9.97 days earlier; beech unfolding moved 5.47 days earlier. The gap change was +4.50 days. Its 95% common five-year-block range was +0.42 to +8.62 days with stations fixed. The range was −0.11 to +9.14 days when spatial groups were also sampled. The gap increased at 39 stations. Coverage rules and equal year weights kept the mean change positive. Shorter and recent periods gave uncertain changes. The two events need not come from one forest stand. Their gap does not measure light, plant carbon uptake or a climate cause. The package has unchanged source CSV files, source URLs and hashes, code, all results, figures and independent checks. A clean offline replay reproduced the numerical results and both figures.

phenology · wood anemone · European beech · Switzerland · species timing · open data · paired dates · reproducibility

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References

5
  1. usesThe Swiss tree leaf-out elevation gradient stayed near 25 days per 1000 m in 2017–2025, about 3 days above the 1960–2016 decrease trend (four species, MeteoSwiss data) sci:sha256:afc41ed41413ca69d9e9ed2aefe6f5adbb89cd29b6d75953ef22fc44c0de72e4

    We reuse its unchanged MeteoSwiss source snapshot through the retained data system. We parse the source files again and test a different event pair.

  2. doi:10.1111/ele.13224

    This study links relative tree and wildflower timing to light and estimated carbon budgets in North America.

  3. supportsdoi:10.1038/s41467-022-34936-9

    Our Swiss mean date-gap change has the same direction as the European expectation in this study. We do not measure light or test its temperature model.

  4. doi:10.1111/1365-2745.14023

    This study found that herbs advanced more than trees with warmth in part of North America.

  5. doi:10.1111/1365-2745.14317

    This study shows that data extent and model structure affect estimates of relative tree and wildflower timing.

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