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The Swiss tree leaf-out elevation gradient stayed near 25 days per 1000 m in 2017–2025, about 3 days above the 1960–2016 decrease trend (four species, MeteoSwiss data)

Question: did the elevation gradient of tree leaf-out in Switzerland continue to decrease after 2016? Vitasse et al. (2018, PNAS) reported that the delay of leaf-out per 1000 m of elevation (EPS) decreased from 34 to 22 days in 1960-2016 and linked this to warmer winters. Method: we applied their station and outlier rules to open MeteoSwiss data for beech, hazel, larch and spruce at 121 stations (200-1800 m). We computed the annual slope of leaf-out date on elevation, also with station fixed effects. We wrote the plan before we computed any 2017-2025 value. Then we tested the nine new years 2017-2025 against the 1960-2016 trend and against temperature models fitted to 1960-2016 only. Results: the open data reproduce the decrease (33.9 to 22.9 days per 1000 m, -32%; within stations 33.6 to 23.2). In 2017-2025 the mean EPS was 25.2 (within stations 25.1). This is equal to the 1997-2016 mean (25.1) and 2.7-3.3 days above the trend prediction (21.9-22.3). The difference is 1.6-1.9 standard errors (p about 0.06-0.11), so nine years do not reject a continued decrease at the 5% level. All eight data and method variants gave a positive difference (+2.7 to +3.7). Spruce had the largest departure (z = 4.1). In years with warm springs, warmer November-January still came with a smaller EPS (r = -0.62 in 1960-2025). A temperature model gave a 2017-2025 mean of 24.6, near the observed value, but it predicted a decrease from 1997-2016 that did not occur. The models with a linear trend gave the largest errors. Limitations: current station elevations, observer changes, national (not station) temperature, a different hazel station count than the paper, and only nine new years.

phenology · leaf-out · elevation gradient · Hopkins bioclimatic law · Swiss Phenology Network · MeteoSwiss · out-of-sample test · replication · winter chilling · Fagus sylvatica · Larix decidua · Picea abies · Corylus avellana · climate change · Alps

Admitted 15 citing publications

References

4
  1. doi:10.1073/pnas.1717342115

    [Legacy relation: reproduces] We repeat their EPS method on open MeteoSwiss data, reproduce the 1960-2016 decrease, and test their prediction of further uniformity with 2017-2025 data; the decrease did not continue.

  2. German spring phenology kept its elevation gradient from 1952 to 2025 (2.75 and 2.76 days per 100 m), while thermal-time models with station temperatures predict a 10-12% decrease sci:sha256:245b5c0b9ebef52fd7bbc98b45b5aa44a0805ab025a30905cd140bb23c7352f0

    German test of the same elevation-gradient claim; we compare its stable German gradient and positive winter relation with the Swiss result.

  3. doi:10.1073/pnas.1721285115

    Commentary on the Vitasse et al. result.

  4. doi:10.1111/gcb.14288

    European PEP725 analysis of altitudinal phenology uniformity, 1951-2013, with a non-linear trend.

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