The Swiss tree leaf-out elevation gradient stayed near 25 days per 1000 m in 2017–2025, about 3 days above the 1960–2016 decrease trend (four species, MeteoSwiss data)
Question: did the elevation gradient of tree leaf-out in Switzerland continue to decrease after 2016? Vitasse et al. (2018, PNAS) reported that the delay of leaf-out per 1000 m of elevation (EPS) decreased from 34 to 22 days in 1960-2016 and linked this to warmer winters. Method: we applied their station and outlier rules to open MeteoSwiss data for beech, hazel, larch and spruce at 121 stations (200-1800 m). We computed the annual slope of leaf-out date on elevation, also with station fixed effects. We wrote the plan before we computed any 2017-2025 value. Then we tested the nine new years 2017-2025 against the 1960-2016 trend and against temperature models fitted to 1960-2016 only. Results: the open data reproduce the decrease (33.9 to 22.9 days per 1000 m, -32%; within stations 33.6 to 23.2). In 2017-2025 the mean EPS was 25.2 (within stations 25.1). This is equal to the 1997-2016 mean (25.1) and 2.7-3.3 days above the trend prediction (21.9-22.3). The difference is 1.6-1.9 standard errors (p about 0.06-0.11), so nine years do not reject a continued decrease at the 5% level. All eight data and method variants gave a positive difference (+2.7 to +3.7). Spruce had the largest departure (z = 4.1). In years with warm springs, warmer November-January still came with a smaller EPS (r = -0.62 in 1960-2025). A temperature model gave a 2017-2025 mean of 24.6, near the observed value, but it predicted a decrease from 1997-2016 that did not occur. The models with a linear trend gave the largest errors. Limitations: current station elevations, observer changes, national (not station) temperature, a different hazel station count than the paper, and only nine new years.
phenology · leaf-out · elevation gradient · Hopkins bioclimatic law · Swiss Phenology Network · MeteoSwiss · out-of-sample test · replication · winter chilling · Fagus sylvatica · Larix decidua · Picea abies · Corylus avellana · climate change · Alps
References
4- doi:10.1073/pnas.1717342115
[Legacy relation: reproduces] We repeat their EPS method on open MeteoSwiss data, reproduce the 1960-2016 decrease, and test their prediction of further uniformity with 2017-2025 data; the decrease did not continue.
- German spring phenology kept its elevation gradient from 1952 to 2025 (2.75 and 2.76 days per 100 m), while thermal-time models with station temperatures predict a 10-12% decrease sci:sha256:245b5c0b9ebef52fd7bbc98b45b5aa44a0805ab025a30905cd140bb23c7352f0
German test of the same elevation-gradient claim; we compare its stable German gradient and positive winter relation with the Swiss result.
- doi:10.1073/pnas.1721285115
Commentary on the Vitasse et al. result.
- doi:10.1111/gcb.14288
European PEP725 analysis of altitudinal phenology uniformity, 1951-2013, with a non-linear trend.
Cited by
15 publicationsPublic catalog entries on Sciscape.
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We reuse its unchanged MeteoSwiss source snapshot through the retained data system. We parse the source files again and test a different event pair.
- usesSummer rain had no clear mean link to the interval from leaf colouring to drop for six tree species at 110 Swiss stations in 1996–2025
We reuse unchanged MeteoSwiss source files from the retained dataset associated with this publication.
- usesMean leaf colouring gaps showed no clear change among four tree species at 45 Swiss stations, 1996–2010 versus 2011–2025
We use the unchanged MeteoSwiss source CSV snapshot retained for this Swiss phenology contribution. Our new analysis starts from the original files.
- usesMean leaf emergence gaps showed no clear change at 28 Swiss stations from 1961–1990 to 1996–2025
We use the exact MeteoSwiss source files preserved by this study. We rebuild a fixed-station, four-species panel to test gaps among species at the same station. The earlier study tested gaps across elevations.
- usesSpring leaf and needle dates were 5.9 days earlier at 56 Swiss sites in 1996–2025 than in 1961–1990; changes in species gaps were uncertain
We reuse its retained unchanged MeteoSwiss source files and the same four species. We independently parse the raw data and test within-site species gaps rather than the elevation gradient.
- usesYearly fits with flowering dates cut mean squared fruit-date error by 13% for two elder species and rowan in Swiss records, 2011–2025
We reuse its retained, unchanged MeteoSwiss source snapshot and write a separate parser and prediction analysis.
- usesWood anemone flowering and beech leaf opening occurred earlier at 54 Swiss stations; their gap change was uncertain, 1961–1990 versus 1996–2025
We reuse its unchanged retained MeteoSwiss source files and source provenance. We independently parse two event codes and test a different paired date gap.
- usesThe mean leaf emergence delay fell, but the rise in reversed date order was uncertain for four species at 91 Swiss station pairs, 1961–1990 to 1996–2025
We reuse the retained unchanged MeteoSwiss source files collected for this study. We add a fixed local pair analysis with new code.
- usesThe mean interval from leaf colouring to drop was 1.9 days shorter at fixed Swiss sites for six tree species in 2011–2025 than in 1996–2010
We reuse unchanged MeteoSwiss source CSV files retained for this publication. Our autumn interval question, analysis code and derived results are different.
- usesThe temperature difference between March and May predicted leaf-out intervals for four tree species at 111 Swiss stations in models with station and time effects, 1960–2025
We reuse its unchanged, retained MeteoSwiss source files and its four-species set. We rebuild the study panel from raw data and test differences among species within station-years.
- usesThe interval from leaf unfolding to colouring was 8 days longer at 63 Swiss beech stations in 2001–2025 than in 1961–1985
We reused its unchanged retained MeteoSwiss source CSV snapshot. We made a new paired spring–autumn analysis from the raw files.
- usesPrevious autumn colouring gave no clear gain in linear spring predictions at 88 Swiss beech stations in 2011–2025 with weather through February
We reuse its retained, unchanged MeteoSwiss phenology and NBCN source snapshot. We make a new lagged-season panel and new analysis code.
- usesSpring leaf dates gave no clear gain in 2016–2025 autumn predictions at 95 Swiss beech stations with observed weather
We use the unchanged MeteoSwiss raw-data snapshot preserved with this study. We build a new paired spring and autumn panel.
- usesMean leaf-date gaps fell across 80 Swiss stations from 1961–1990 to 1996–2025, but correlation changes were uncertain for four species
We reuse its unchanged MeteoSwiss source snapshot from the retained data store. We rebuild the records and test spatial correlations and date gaps with new code.
- usesSwiss records for three species did not show a clear mean trend in the flowering-to-fruit interval in 1996–2025
We reuse the unchanged MeteoSwiss source snapshot retained with this leaf-out study. Our paired fruit analysis and code are separate.