Spring recovery after dry starts was below a paired-year reference across 344 US divisions in 1901-2025

We tested whether spring precipitation closed dry October-February deficits in 344 contiguous-US climate divisions in 1901-2025. Recovery means that October-May precipitation reached its 1991-2020 mean. Dry means an early total at most 80% of its mean. The equal division mean recovery rate was 6.23%, versus 7.57% from all early-season and spring pairings within five 25-year periods. The difference was -1.34 percentage points. Common spring-year permutations retained spatial dependence. The two-sided reference tail fraction was 0.0025; period-wise circular shifts gave 0.0011. The result shows a small aggregate departure from this seasonal-budget reference. It does not identify a physical cause, measure water-supply recovery, or give an operational forecast. Period exchangeability and fixed retrospective normal values limit inference. Code, all seasonal totals, random draws, provenance, and an independent audit are included.

precipitation · seasonal recovery · drought · nClimDiv · reference model