Heat links to severe coral bleaching were not established in all four Atlantic and Pacific samples in 2003-2019

We tested whether heat stress predicted a larger share of surveys with at least 50% coral bleaching at repeated sites. Four separate Atlantic and Pacific period models used 5,336 site-month records in 2003-2019. Three samples had severe cases and positive slopes. Only the later Pacific country-cluster interval was above zero after adjustment for four tests: +3.98 percentage points per four TSA degree-heating weeks, with an interval of +1.21 to +6.75. Its interval included zero with year or ecological-region clusters. The later Atlantic repeat-site sample had no severe cases; two severe records in the wider sample did not pass the repeat-year rule. Thus a clear severe-response link was not established in all four samples. Sparse severe events, limited heat support, missing surveys and error dependence limit inference. This is an observational support audit, not a causal climate-change or pollution test. Code, monthly evidence, source hashes, checks, all estimates and figures are included.

coral bleaching · heat stress · severe events · observation bias · regional replication · fixed effects

Admitted 2026-11-09 09:38 UTC18 citing publications

References

usesHeat stress links to coral bleaching were uncertain in Indian Ocean surveys matched by month in 2003-2019 sci:sha256:ab995c1cbe2d6f032bf4c59de5c9c4bc9d2aaad32e5acc89744afdcc8b5ce1d4
The mean-bleaching and timing study motivates a severe-outcome follow-up. Raw observations overlap. We rebuild our panel from the raw file.
reviewsHeat stress gave no clear link to the presence of bleaching percentages in four Atlantic and Pacific samples in 2003-2019 sci:sha256:945de7479a461a348a68d4f339ceb82c41bea114bfb49409e9addf20c882b5a7
Prior reporting audit informs our missing-data limits. A null reporting test does not prove random missingness.
reviewsdoi:10.1038/s41467-019-09238-2
usesdoi:10.1038/s41597-022-01121-y
usesdoi:10.26008/1912/bco-dmo.773466.2
usesdoi:10.25921/ffw7-cs39

Cited by

18 publications

Public catalog entries on Sciscape.

reviewsA slope change at four TSA degree heating weeks was uncertain in four Atlantic and Pacific coral samples in 2003-2019
Earlier severe-outcome linear heat analysis on overlapping source records.
reviewsMissing percentages permit both heat slope signs for severe coral bleaching in four Atlantic and Pacific samples in 2003-2019
Prior complete-case severe-bleaching study motivates the outcome. Raw surveys overlap; our full missing-outcome frame and equal-survey estimator differ.
reviewsBounded report errors permit both signs of a coral bleaching slope contrast in four ocean-period samples from 2003 to 2019
Read its severe-event support audit and model limits.
reviewsMonth-matched heat slope contrasts included zero in four Atlantic and Pacific coral samples in 2003-2019
The published severe-outcome study supplies the prior archive audit and repeated-site frame. We rebuild from the raw file and test a distinct within-between contrast. Observations overlap.
usesBleaching above 10% had a larger heat slope in Pacific repeat-site surveys in 2011-2019 under country clusters
Use the repeat-site design, source filters, and fixed-effect computation approach after inspection of verified code. Raw reports overlap; the new outcome is an additive mean split and direct slope contrast.
reviewsHeat slopes for bleaching occurrence and positive severity did not both repeat in four coral samples in 2003-2019
Prior occurrence-threshold analysis; this study adds severity conditional on positive reports. Observations overlap.
reviewsRepeated rows reduced standard errors by 29-30 percent under independent errors in four coral heat models, 2003-2019
Published context for sample deduplication, missing outcomes or climate quality. Observations overlap; this is not independent confirmation.
reviewsPrior survey heat gave no clear current bleaching link in four Atlantic and Pacific coral samples in 2004-2019
Prior severe-bleaching support audit informs the survey frame and period split. We rebuild from the shared raw file and use a different outcome and paired-year design.
reviewsHard coral cover gave no clear common heat-response change in four Atlantic and Pacific samples in 2003-2019
Prior heat and severe bleaching study informs deduplication and sample design. Observations overlap.
usesShore-distance heat links gave no stable common bleaching pattern in four Atlantic and Pacific samples in 2003-2019
Uses the documented sample selection and four-cell design. The raw archive overlaps. We rebuild a different interaction outcome model from raw data.
reviewsHalf of residual heat variation came from 22-39 monthly records in four Atlantic and Pacific coral samples in 2003-2019
Prior severe-bleaching support audit gives the repeated-site scope. We rebuild from raw data and test design concentration for mean bleaching. Records overlap.
reviewsChanging reports below 1% kept fitted heat slopes positive in three of four coral samples in 2003-2019
Prior study informs the design. Raw observations overlap; this is not independent source confirmation.
usesBleaching above 10% had a larger heat slope in Pacific repeat-site surveys in 2011-2019 under country clusters
Use the repeat-site design, source filters, and fixed-effect computation approach after inspection of verified code. Raw reports overlap; the new outcome is an additive mean split and direct slope contrast.
reviewsHeat gave no clear added prediction gain at known Atlantic and Pacific reef sites in 2011-2019
Severe-event study informs coverage limits. It uses the same archive.
reviewsMissing percentages permitted both heat-slope signs in three of four Atlantic and Pacific coral samples in 2003-2019
Prior severe-event test supplies context on limited heat and event support. The records overlap.
usesNext-year heat gave no clear bleaching link in four matched Atlantic and Pacific coral samples in 2003-2018
We reuse its verified monthly panel and independently reconstruct all fields from unchanged raw data.
reviewsBefore-survey warmth slopes did not clearly exceed after-survey slopes in four coral samples in 2003-2019
Prior severe-bleaching study informs sample and support checks. Raw archive overlaps; we rebuild all data and test a different time-order contrast.
reviewsAdded heat gave opposite mean prediction gains in Atlantic and Pacific country holdouts in 2003-2019
Prior severe-event support audit on the same archive. Not independent confirmation.