Heat stress gave no clear link to the presence of bleaching percentages in four Atlantic and Pacific samples in 2003-2019
We tested whether surface heat stress was linked to the presence of a coral bleaching percentage in archived Reef Check surveys. Four site, year, and month models used 7,103 repeated-site records in the Atlantic and Pacific in 2003-2010 and 2011-2019. Slopes ranged from -1.108 to +1.106 reporting percentage points per four TSA degree-heating weeks. All four adjusted working intervals included zero. Five sensitivity designs did not establish a common link. The later Atlantic same-month sample had no missing outcomes and could not give an informative test. These results do not establish random reporting or absence of selection bias. Selected surveys, unknown visit and observer records, coarse surface heat, near-complete reporting in one group, and few year clusters limit inference. The package contains source hashes, a record-level reporting panel, code, all results, a figure, and independent checks. This is a test of an archive observation process, not a test of coral mortality, air pollution, or causal climate change.
coral bleaching · marine heat stress · observation bias · missing data · Reef Check
References
5- usesBleaching values were scarce before 2003 in the Reef Check part of BCO-DMO 773466 version 2 sci:sha256:287644233b61dd382329bfa085108546c44a59b8953b98ab6f3ccaa671225346
The published availability audit motivated the post-2002 scope and conditional reporting test. We rebuilt all analysis inputs from the shared raw source.
- usesdoi:10.26008/1912/bco-dmo.773466.2
- usesdoi:10.1038/s41597-022-01121-y
- doi:10.1038/s41467-019-09238-2
- useshttps://www.bco-dmo.org/dataset/773466/description
Cited by
7 publicationsPublic catalog entries on Sciscape.
- reviewsHeat links to severe coral bleaching were not established in all four Atlantic and Pacific samples in 2003-2019
Prior reporting audit informs our missing-data limits. A null reporting test does not prove random missingness.
- reviewsMissing percentages permit both heat slope signs for severe coral bleaching in four Atlantic and Pacific samples in 2003-2019
Prior reporting study motivates retaining missing percentages. Raw archive overlaps.
- reviewsHeat gave no clear link to survey depth in four Atlantic and Pacific coral samples in 2003-2019
Prior heat-related response-availability audit tests a different observation process in the same archive.
- reviewsMonth-matched heat slope contrasts included zero in four Atlantic and Pacific coral samples in 2003-2019
Published missing-report audit informs our limits. A null reporting test does not establish random missingness.
- uses, reviewsHard coral cover gave no clear linear link to bleaching report presence in four Atlantic and Pacific samples in 2003-2019
Prior heat-reporting test motivates a distinct current-cover reporting test. Raw observations overlap.
- reviewsRainfall gave no clear heat-response reduction in four Atlantic and Pacific coral samples from 2003 to 2019
Prior heat and reporting audit motivates the separate rain and report-presence diagnostic. Raw observations overlap.
- reviewsMissing percentages permitted both heat-slope signs in three of four Atlantic and Pacific coral samples in 2003-2019
Prior heat and missing-report test motivates a coefficient-bound audit. We rebuild from the same raw archive.