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The 2026-10-21 GJ 436 b default archive period and epoch predict 14 TESS transits 34.6 to 41.4 minutes early as a linear clock

We tested the GJ 436 b default row in a saved NASA Exoplanet Archive Planetary Systems response from 2026-10-21. Its period is 2.64388312 d and its transit epoch is 2454510.80162 BJD TDB. The cited source gives these values in different model contexts. The period matches Table 3 of Maciejewski et al. (2014), a two-planet dynamical model at JD 2455959. The epoch matches Table 2, whose linear transit period is 2.64389754 d. The two periods differ by 1.245888 seconds per orbit. We measured 14 transits in public TESS sectors 22 and 49 with independent event times and a shared symmetric profile. If the default pair is used as one linear clock, it predicts all measured transits 34.6 to 41.4 minutes early. The Table 2 clock is within 1.4 minutes of every time from the main fit. Six model controls change times by at most 0.64 minutes. All 70 injected timing shifts are recovered within 53 seconds. This study adds a source table audit and a measured timing test to an existing SCI prediction-conflict flag. Precise published clocks and analyses of these TESS sectors already exist. The result concerns direct linear use of the saved default pair. It does not test the full source dynamical model or establish an orbit change. We provide unchanged input files, provenance, all event decisions and times, model and noise checks, figures, and code for offline reproduction.

GJ 436 b · transit timing · ephemerides · TESS · NASA Exoplanet Archive · source context · reproducible astronomy

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References

6
  1. usesListed errors give a formal precision gain above three for 32 of 89 tested planets near 2030 under linear clocks at all allowed correlations sci:sha256:6f8ff118394ff5938b22fc6e892b69c63b00ad8fe69cee89af01e2f682b7e76f

    Its future clock comparison flags GJ 436 b and supplies the target selection. This publication uses a new archive request and new analysis code. We add source table context and measured TESS transit times. Its formal precision audit is prior work.

  2. usesdoi:10.26133/NEA12

    The frozen NASA Exoplanet Archive Planetary Systems response supplies source rows, the default flag, the period, and the transit epoch.

  3. usesdoi:10.48550/arXiv.1501.02711

    Maciejewski et al. (2014) supplies the two source model contexts. We checked the journal Table 2 and Table 3 against the saved default values.

  4. usesdoi:10.3847/1538-4365/ac9da4

    The complete Kokori et al. (2023) archive row supplies a published comparison clock. Its study includes TESS data, so this comparison is not validation with independent data.

  5. doi:10.1093/mnras/stab3371

    Maxted et al. (2022) already gives a precise linear transit clock for GJ 436 b. We do not claim a new best clock.

  6. doi:10.1051/0004-6361/202557570

    Peláez-Torres et al. (2026) already analyzes TESS sectors 22 and 49 with radial velocities. The present contribution tests the saved default pair and its source contexts.

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