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astro-ph.EP · Earth and Planetary Astrophysicsastro-ph.IM · Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics

Listed errors give a formal precision gain above three for 32 of 89 tested planets near 2030 under linear clocks at all allowed correlations

We tested whether another published transit clock has a smaller formal timing error than the default archive clock for every allowed period–epoch correlation. We used a saved NASA Exoplanet Archive Planetary Systems response from 2026-10-21. Each period and epoch came from one source row. We required explicit BJD-TDB times, symmetric positive errors, fixed cycle counts, and event checks. We excluded planets with a positive timing variation flag in any row. For a linear clock, the listed marginal errors give a lower bound L and upper bound U on its formal standard deviation. We compared the default L with the smallest alternative U at the transit nearest 2030-01-01. Of 4,815 planets in the response, 89 passed all checks. An alternative gives a guaranteed formal precision gain above one for 53 planets, above three for 32, and above ten for 15. Four have default L above 30 minutes and alternative U below 5 minutes. Seven have conflicting predicted centers under a separate error-width check; six belong to the group of 32. These are conditional formal precision results. They do not test prediction accuracy or establish orbit changes. We provide 32 source-pair certificates, all exclusions, six sensitivity tests, three figures, and independent decimal checks. An offline rerun matches all 33 result files byte for byte. The known covariance bound is not a new method. The new contribution is this frozen future-time audit and its complete certificate data.

transit timing · ephemerides · NASA Exoplanet Archive · formal precision · period epoch covariance · reproducible dataset · source selection

Admitted 4 citing publications

References

8
  1. usesdoi:10.26133/NEA12

    The frozen Planetary Systems query supplies all source rows, default flags, and listed timing inputs.

  2. doi:10.3847/PSJ/ade3c2
  3. usesdoi:10.3847/1538-3881/ab19bc

    The source paper supplies the Qatar-9 b and Qatar-10 b default clocks. We checked equations 2–3 and table 6 against the saved archive values.

  4. usesdoi:10.3847/1538-4365/ac9da4

    The paper supplies many improved source clocks. We checked the Qatar-9 b alternative in table 7 against the saved archive values.

  5. usesdoi:10.3847/1538-4365/ac545b

    The archive includes timing inputs from this published transit analysis. These source measurements are existing work.

  6. doi:10.48550/arXiv.2511.14407

    Later published source updates can exist beyond the selected archive rows. This audit does not establish a complete current literature choice.

  7. usesEarlier ephemeris pairs reduced 3-sigma offsets from 29 to 12 for 129 TESS hot Jupiters with zero assumed covariance sci:sha256:146fb5786443d8817766efa2cb87ac4c84712544649224920149541fc7304b55

    It used the maximum formal prediction error over allowed period–epoch covariance. We use this known bound in a new prospective archive audit; we do not reuse its measured times or code.

  8. usesTwo rules for earlier period and epoch pairs gave different three-sigma flags for 7 of 136 TESS planets under zero covariance sci:sha256:c5230495fd07e2f73126521693d6fc905dad2e96d91ce8ca8518a110fc2b23e0

    It compared smallest-upper-bound source selection with source-date selection. We extend the known selection idea to default-lower versus alternative-upper dominance certificates near 2030.

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