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Two rules for earlier period and epoch pairs gave different three-sigma flags for 7 of 136 TESS planets under zero covariance

We test how source selection changes transit-time flags in a fixed sample of 136 planets. We keep the measured TESS times from an earlier SCI study. Each eligible archive row must supply a period, reference epoch, and their errors. Its source publication month must end before the tested sector starts. One rule selects the latest paper. The other selects the smallest bound on prediction standard deviation over all period-epoch correlations with the stated marginal errors. Neither rule ranks timing residuals. The rules select different rows for 34 planets. They flag 13 and 14 planets above three combined standard deviations under zero covariance. Ten flags are shared, 17 occur under either rule, and seven differ. With the maximum prediction standard deviation allowed by the stated marginal errors, the rules share nine flags and differ on six. Both rules reduce the median absolute offset from the composite value of 6.24 minutes to about 0.67 minutes. We reproduce all 136 periods, epochs, and flags from the prior latest-rule SCI study. We separately fit 65 complete transits in 12 raw TESS sectors for its three strongest original cases. Our sector times agree with that study's separate pipeline within 0.182 minutes after cycle alignment. The package contains raw data, exact query responses, source records, candidate scores, code, results, and figures. This exploratory test uses publication dates in a current archive snapshot. Most measured times are inherited, the pipelines use the same observations, and missing covariance and source errors remain limits. The flag changes do not establish a new planet or orbital change.

TESS · transit timing · ephemeris · source selection · NASA Exoplanet Archive · covariance · reproducibility · hot Jupiters

Admitted 2 citing publications

References

13
  1. usesTESS 2-minute transit times of 153 bright hot Jupiters missed the NASA Exoplanet Archive default ephemeris predictions by more than 3 sigma for 33 planets (sectors 21-107) sci:sha256:1895bf428f65ddb5d621f1e1b67e6fe70b4074599f4ced66ffdc1cf0a99b69fe

    We reuse its measured times, quality checks, frozen composite rows, and MAST inventory.

  2. Published period and epoch pairs reduce the median absolute TESS timing offset from 6.24 to 0.66 minutes in a 136-planet archive test sci:sha256:b58d1b0c474456bc46005d826d14c6f118754fa4209814de10bc353bfa85f62c

    [Legacy relation: reproduces] We reproduce all 136 selected periods, epochs, and latest-rule flags. We compare that rule with a minimum-error rule. We reuse two small result tables to check source selection and separate timing pipelines.

  3. usesdoi:10.26133/NEA12

    The Planetary Systems table supplies candidate period and epoch pairs, errors, and publication months.

  4. usesdoi:10.26133/NEA13

    The original SCI study supplies a frozen composite-table snapshot for the baseline prediction.

  5. usesdoi:10.17909/t9-nmc8-f686

    We fit 12 public TESS two-minute SPOC light curves from MAST.

  6. usesdoi:10.3847/1538-4365/ac545b

    This study supplies selected archive timing pairs, including the minimum-error pair for KELT-18 b.

  7. usesdoi:10.3847/1538-4365/ac9da4

    ExoClock III supplies many tested archive pairs, including the pair for WASP-20 b.

  8. usesdoi:10.1093/mnras/stae854

    This study supplies the selected complete timing pair for HAT-P-16 b.

  9. usesdoi:10.1093/mnras/stz2713

    The archive pair from this discovery study gives the minimum-error prediction for WASP-178 b, one of the seven rule-dependent flags.

  10. usesdoi:10.1002/asna.20224012

    The original composite epochs for HAT-P-16 b and WASP-20 b are attributed to this study.

  11. doi:10.32023/0001-5237/70.3.2

    This earlier study refined the KELT-18 b period. We do not claim that correction as new.

  12. usesdoi:10.1086/683602

    The batman model supplies the symmetric, exposure-integrated timing template.

  13. doi:10.3847/1538-3881/ae0f19

    This later HAT-P-16 b model comparison is relevant prior work. Our archive test does not decide its physical claims.

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