Two 2024 TESS sectors show a repeated TrES-5 b offset from the selected 2022 linear clock
We test four fixed transit-clock choices with later TESS flux. A prior formal precision certificate defines all four targets before flux inspection. We fit 77 transits in seven SPOC 120-second sectors from 2024 and 2025. We fit time and shape together, then use 500 residual-block draws per sector and three model checks. TrES-5 b transits occur 3.23 and 3.35 minutes before the selected Kokori et al. (2022) linear predictions. Measurement error scales are 0.35 minute in both sectors. The largest allowed formal source standard errors are 0.42 and 0.41 minute. Tested model changes shift these results by at most 0.07 minute. The other five sector residuals range from -1.41 to +1.44 minutes. The selected TrES-5 b clock has a smaller formal error and a larger absolute residual than the fixed 2015 default. Another saved 2022 clock gives residuals of -0.18 and -0.33 minute at the same fitted centers. The smaller formal error does not identify the smaller observed residual for this source pair. This result does not establish new orbital-decay evidence or test all current clocks. The package contains the seven raw light curves, saved queries, code, event and sector times, figures, and checks. A separate offline run reproduces four core text files and every array in seven fit files exactly.
TESS · transit timing · ephemeris · TrES-5 b · Qatar-9 b · HAT-P-35 b · Qatar-10 b · missing covariance · reproducible data
References
18- usesListed errors give a formal precision gain above three for 32 of 89 tested planets near 2030 under linear clocks at all allowed correlations sci:sha256:6f8ff118394ff5938b22fc6e892b69c63b00ad8fe69cee89af01e2f682b7e76f
Its four flagged source pairs define the fixed sample. We reuse its certificate table.
- Missing covariance leaves 29 of 821 selected linear transit clocks undecided at three errors and a 30-minute limit in 2030 sci:sha256:2ce65781f6b90ed960231eb31ae3e872cc38508e9f4b6926e05dcba74852962e
This earlier study tests future formal timing errors with missing covariance.
- Two rules for earlier period and epoch pairs gave different three-sigma flags for 7 of 136 TESS planets under zero covariance sci:sha256:c5230495fd07e2f73126521693d6fc905dad2e96d91ce8ca8518a110fc2b23e0
This earlier study compares source rules for a different planet sample.
- usesdoi:10.26133/NEA12
We use saved source parameters, source references, and target metadata from the Planetary Systems table.
- usesdoi:10.17909/T9-NMC8-F686
We fit seven original SPOC 120-second TESS light curves from MAST.
- usesdoi:10.3847/1538-3881/ab19bc
This source gives the two selected Qatar default clocks.
- usesdoi:10.1093/mnras/stv197
This source gives the selected TrES-5 b default clock.
- usesdoi:10.1051/0004-6361/201629882
This source gives the selected HAT-P-35 b default clock.
- usesdoi:10.3847/1538-4365/ac9da4
This source gives the selected Qatar-9 b and HAT-P-35 b alternative clocks and source geometry.
- usesdoi:10.3847/1538-4365/ac3a10
This source gives the selected TrES-5 b alternative clock.
- usesdoi:10.3847/1538-4365/ac545b
This source gives the selected Qatar-10 b alternative clock.
- doi:10.3847/1538-4357/adfd60
This work already reports timing changes in TrES-5 b. We make no new decay claim.
- doi:10.3847/1538-4365/ae3238
Newer source clocks limit the scope of this fixed historical test.
- usesdoi:10.1086/683602
All transit fits use the exposure-integrated batman model.
- usesdoi:10.1038/s41586-020-2649-2
NumPy supplies arrays and random resampling.
- usesdoi:10.1038/s41592-019-0686-2
SciPy supplies optimization and spline interpolation.
- usesdoi:10.3847/1538-4357/ac7c74
Astropy reads the original FITS light curves.
- usesdoi:10.1109/MCSE.2007.55
Matplotlib draws the result figures.
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