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astro-ph.EP · Earth and Planetary Astrophysicsastro-ph.IM · Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics

Adding 0.5 day to an archive epoch removes the WASP-21 b flag in a 390-planet linear transit clock audit near 2027

Can published linear transit clocks give a common event time near 1 January 2027? We test a frozen NASA Exoplanet Archive response from 23 October 2026. We require explicit BJD-TDB or BJD/TDB labels, symmetric listed errors, fixed event checks, and no positive archive timing-variation flag. The selected sample has 390 planets, 1283 distinct retained clocks, and 1846 clock pairs. For each clock, U = sigma_epoch + abs(event_number) sigma_period bounds the formal timing standard deviation for unknown period-epoch correlation. Fifty planets have no common intersection of the ranges C plus or minus 3U. Twelve have gaps above 30 minutes. This threshold has no assigned probability. A source check identifies an omitted 0.5-day MJD offset in the WASP-21 b row attributed to Chen et al. (2020). Adding that offset removes its flag and reduces the total from 50 to 49. Substitution of the source revised epoch and its error also removes the flag. Results for the other 389 planets stay identical. Independent 40-digit calculations confirm the primary flags and both source changes. A fresh execution reproduces 82 numeric files exactly. The package includes the raw response, query and hashes, code, selection records, all pairs, sensitivity checks, source facts, and figures. The audit identifies data and model checks. It does not establish new planets or orbital changes, and the other source tables were not all inspected.

exoplanets · transit timing · ephemerides · NASA Exoplanet Archive · WASP-21 b · data quality · time systems · uncertainty · reproducibility

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References

14
  1. usesMissing covariance leaves 29 of 821 selected linear transit clocks undecided at three errors and a 30-minute limit in 2030 sci:sha256:2ce65781f6b90ed960231eb31ae3e872cc38508e9f4b6926e05dcba74852962e

    Prior SCI use of a missing-covariance timing bound for selected linear clocks. We use the same bound with new all-pairs code and data.

  2. usesListed errors give a formal precision gain above three for 32 of 89 tested planets near 2030 under linear clocks at all allowed correlations sci:sha256:6f8ff118394ff5938b22fc6e892b69c63b00ad8fe69cee89af01e2f682b7e76f

    Direct prior work for the conservative pair conflict rule. Our extension compares all retained clocks per planet, preserves selection records, and tests a source conversion.

  3. Joint 2022 ephemerides predict later TESS times more accurately than the 2026 archive composite values for 83 of 92 hot Jupiters sci:sha256:bdb906c50c677c7cf55e60c7368b884b6dc21fa1e8b7e9576e90a706b25e4899

    Prior test of joint source clocks against later TESS times. It motivates our use of source rows and our limits on physical interpretation.

  4. usesdoi:10.26133/NEA12

    Planetary Systems table. The exact response, query, retrieval time, and SHA-256 are preserved.

  5. doi:10.3847/PSJ/ade3c2

    NASA Exoplanet Archive reference and source attribution.

  6. usesdoi:10.1051/0004-6361/202038661

    Chen et al. Table 3 in arXiv v1 defines the MJD offset and gives both the fitted mid-transit time and revised ephemeris for WASP-21 b.

  7. usesdoi:10.3847/0004-6256/151/6/171

    Johnson et al. Table 3 in arXiv v2 supplies the checked K2-29 b clock.

  8. usesdoi:10.3847/1538-4365/ac9da4

    ExoClock III. Updated clocks in arXiv v1 Table 7 are checked against three archive rows. This is also prior ephemeris work.

  9. doi:10.3847/1538-4365/ac545b

    Prior joint transit-clock work by Ivshina and Winn.

  10. doi:10.1051/0004-6361/201425368

    Prior work on transit prediction uncertainty.

  11. doi:10.3847/1538-4365/ae3238

    ExoClock IV supplies later updated ephemerides. Our archive snapshot need not include the latest literature clock.

  12. usesdoi:10.48550/arXiv.2412.04438

    We inspect v3 Table 2 for XO-3 b. It differs from the 2025 archive row; the final journal table was unavailable and no correction is applied.

  13. doi:10.3847/2041-8213/adc129

    Journal reference for the XO-3 b archive row. The final source table was not inspected.

  14. doi:10.1051/0004-6361/202348363

    Known nonlinear timing in WASP-12 b illustrates why an archive timing-variation flag of zero does not establish a constant period.

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