Cold-tail shape gave no clear current-minus-future catch link in four insect samples in Sweden and Madagascar in 2019-2020

We tested whether a relatively cold day had an insect catch link beyond mean temperature and temperature SD. We used 5,804 measured catches in Sweden and Madagascar in 2019-2020. The cold-gap metric is mean daily temperature minus the lowest daily mean in a collection interval. Four country and period models compared its current-window slope with its slope after collection. Models controlled weather in three windows, trap, season and collection duration. Estimates ranged from -0.0137 to +0.0177 log(1 + grams/day) per C of gap. All four Bonferroni-adjusted 95 percent intervals included zero. Without SD controls, later Sweden had a positive adjusted interval. Each country has one survey year. The two periods are separate seasons at repeated traps. Cold-gap and SD are strongly related. Few time blocks, selected measured samples and coarse weather limit inference. Catch combines abundance, flight activity and trap performance. This test does not establish a cold-damage mechanism, a climate-change response or an air-pollution effect. The package gives code, hashes, aggregate estimates, checks and a figure. Raw data and catch-level outputs remain outside the package.

insect catch · cold-tail shape · temperature · observation bias · temporal specificity · regional comparison