Temperature variation gave a positive current-minus-future catch contrast in later Sweden and uncertain contrasts in three other samples in 2019-2020

We tested whether variation among daily mean temperatures had a different link to insect catch during collection than just after collection. Four country and period models used 5,804 measured catches in Sweden and Madagascar in 2019-2020. Models controlled mean temperature, precipitation, wet-day fraction, earlier weather, trap, season and collection duration. All four contrast estimates were positive. Only later Sweden had an adjusted 95 percent interval above zero: 0.0403 [0.0093, 0.0712] log(1 + grams/day) per C of temperature SD. That interval stayed above zero in six planned checks. The other three adjusted intervals included zero. The results do not establish a shared collection-window response. They cannot show that temperature variation has no effect. Each country has one survey year. Period splits are separate seasons at repeated traps. Catch combines insect abundance, flight activity and capture conditions. Coarse weather, selected measured samples, few time blocks and remaining seasonal bias limit inference. The package provides code, source hashes, aggregate results and a figure. Raw and record-level data remain outside the package.

insect biomass · temperature variation · weather · observation bias · temporal specificity · regional replication