Peak-day rain share gave no clear current-minus-future catch slope in four insect samples in 2019-2020

We tested whether the share of precipitation on the wettest day had a different link to insect catches during collection than just after collection. Four models used 4,739 catches from Sweden in 2019 and Madagascar in 2019-2020. Each weather window had at least 1 mm total precipitation. Models controlled temperature, mean precipitation, wet-day fraction, earlier weather, trap, season and duration. 0 of four adjusted 95 percent intervals excluded zero. This test does not show a common current-window signal. It cannot prove no rain effect. Trap catches combine abundance and flight activity. One survey year per country, selected wet windows, coarse weather and few time blocks limit inference. We provide code, source hashes, aggregate results and a figure. Raw and record-level data remain outside the package.

insect biomass · rain concentration · weather · observation bias · temporal specificity · null result