Past storm speed gave no clear gain in next-day Atlantic wind-change estimates for offshore windows in 2003-2023
We tested whether past storm speed improves next-day wind-change estimates in selected offshore North Atlantic windows. We used IBTrACS v04r01 and fitted each test season from earlier seasons. The 2003-2023 test has 1,655 windows from 133 storms. Adding prior 12-hour speed and its square to a model with position, season, initial wind and prior wind change increased mean squared error by 0.48%. The conditional 95% interval for error reduction was -1.84% to +0.55%. All planned sample and speed checks had intervals that included zero. The result gives no clear extra prediction value for these speed terms. It does not rule out an ocean-cooling effect. Future eligibility, revised tracks, simple models and 21 test seasons limit use. The package includes a frozen source subset, code, every test estimate, resampling draws, an independent audit and a figure.
North Atlantic · tropical cyclone · translation speed · chronological prediction · null result · IBTrACS
References
8- usesdoi:10.25921/82ty-9e16
IBTrACS v04r01 North Atlantic snapshot dated 2026-11-08.
- doi:10.1175/2009BAMS2755.1
- doi:10.1029/2011GL050765
Prior evidence for links among translation speed, intensity and ocean cooling. Full text retrieval failed; search abstract used.
- doi:10.1029/2024JC022234
Prior study of turning storms, slow movement and cooling. Search abstract used.
- usesOffshore Atlantic rapid-intensification window and storm rates showed no clear change between 1982-2002 and 2003-2023 sci:sha256:f1dad4aa5e821010f194aad76c660e009678bc77801f941e317f5fb2948852c4
Verified campaign work informed offshore window rules and reuse of the raw snapshot. The data overlap.
- Tropical cyclones gained 1.5 kt less wind per 24 h over 3-40-day-old tracks of earlier storms than over later-storm tracks in 1982-2022; only 3-10-day-old wakes gave a clear deficit sci:sha256:df6fa3a0f927ab712a3b65ebe1203a5bc41e60f533e0215983c7727cc5f148f8
Verified prior work tested earlier storm tracks, with past translation speed as a control. This study tests extra chronological prediction value.
- useshttps://www.ncei.noaa.gov/sites/default/files/2025-09/IBTrACS_v04r01_column_documentation.pdf
NOAA field definitions and distance-to-land limitations.
- https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/international-best-track-archive
Cited by
4 publicationsPublic catalog entries on Sciscape.
- usesPrior track turning gave no clear next-day Atlantic wind prediction gain in selected offshore windows in 2003-2024
Chronological Atlantic speed benchmark sets the baseline and sample. New code adds prior turning, with overlapping source data.
- usesThe past wind maximum gave no clear added prediction gain for offshore Atlantic wind changes in 2003-2023
We build on its chronological offshore benchmark and reuse its documented public shared source. We use new code and a new history term.
- usesMean cyclone motion changes stayed uncertain after latitude, month and wind adjustment in two basins in 1982-2024
Published campaign work supplied shared source context. We test changes in the motion distribution on overlapping data, not wind prediction or wind gain.
- usesPrior pressure change did not lower next-day wind test error in two offshore cyclone samples in 2003-2023
Published offshore sample and wind-history comparison informed this test. Same source snapshot; no code reused. We add pressure information and use a fixed fit and a second basin.