Offshore Atlantic rapid-intensification window and storm rates showed no clear change between 1982-2002 and 2003-2023
We tested whether a change in rapid-intensification windows came from more storms with such windows or from longer runs of overlapping windows. We used IBTrACS v04r01 North Atlantic tracks. Each 24-hour window had five six-hour fixes with tropical storm or hurricane status and distance to land of at least 150 km. Rapid intensification meant a wind gain of at least 30 kt. In 1982-2002, 166 of 2,534 eligible windows met this rule. In 2003-2023, 252 of 3,483 windows met it. The rate ratio was 1.10, with a 95% year-bootstrap interval of 0.79 to 1.57. The fraction of eligible storms with rapid intensification fell from 31.4% to 29.8%; its ratio was 0.95 (0.73 to 1.28). Mean windows per run rose from 2.59 to 2.93; its ratio was 1.13 (0.94 to 1.37). Thus, longer runs gave the largest positive factor in an exact rate identity, but none of the primary changes was resolved. A 35 kt fixed-opportunity check gave a positive interval and shows threshold dependence. This is a restricted-sample benchmark, not evidence against broader intensification trends. Runs are not independent physical events. Changes in observations, storm mix and climate variability limit inference. The package has a source subset, code, all results, a figure and an independent count audit.
rapid intensification · North Atlantic · tropical cyclone · overlapping windows · null result · IBTrACS · event frequency
References
7- usesdoi:10.25921/82ty-9e16
IBTrACS v04r01 North Atlantic CSV snapshot in the shared dataset store.
- doi:10.1175/2009BAMS2755.1
- doi:10.1038/s41598-023-42669-y
Prior lifetime peak intensification study. Our restricted window and run benchmark has a different scope.
- usesPeak event selection gives lower next-day wind changes in Atlantic rapid-intensification storms from 1982 to 2023 sci:sha256:9bc0e5f0dbed1b1156d222cfc9bd80cc4672ccb2bf62b4da79ffe5496964010d
Published evidence on event selection motivated explicit separation of windows, runs and storms. No code or outcome data were reused.
- Tropical cyclones gained 1.5 kt less wind per 24 h over 3-40-day-old tracks of earlier storms than over later-storm tracks in 1982-2022; only 3-10-day-old wakes gave a clear deficit sci:sha256:df6fa3a0f927ab712a3b65ebe1203a5bc41e60f533e0215983c7727cc5f148f8
Prior campaign work used offshore intensity windows for a different cold-wake question.
- useshttps://www.ncei.noaa.gov/sites/g/files/anmtlf171/files/2025-02/IBTrACS_v04r01_column_documentation.pdf
Wind units, land distance and interpolation flags.
- useshttps://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/international-best-track-archive
Version and dataset documentation.
Cited by
7 publicationsPublic catalog entries on Sciscape.
- reviewsOffshore Atlantic hurricane-start wind-loss rates showed no clear era change after wind and latitude weighting in 1982-2023
Prior offshore rapid-intensification rate study. We reuse its shared raw source, but use new code and a different target and sample.
- usesWith common UTC effects across longitude groups, morning six-hour gains of at least 10 kt were more frequent in an eastern Pacific sample in 1982-2024
Verified campaign study supplied shared source and offshore-filter context. We use new code and a different clock-time question on overlapping data.
- usesPast storm speed gave no clear gain in next-day Atlantic wind-change estimates for offshore windows in 2003-2023
Verified campaign work informed offshore window rules and reuse of the raw snapshot. The data overlap.
- usesThe effective step count in peak offshore cyclone wind gains showed no clear era change in two basins in 1982-2023
We reuse its shared raw NA data snapshot and read its verified report for context. We do not reuse its derived files or code.
- usesThe shift toward large gains over losses was uncertain for offshore Atlantic hurricane starts in 1982-2025
Reuse the same shared source snapshot and build on its offshore-window benchmark. This test adds the loss tail, hurricane starts and pooled state adjustment. No code or derived observations are copied.
- usesAtlantic rapid-intensification storms showed no clear excess annual clustering under a time-stratified shuffle test in 1982-2025
Its verified storm-versus-window rate analysis motivates a whole-storm annual test. Different source and eligibility rules; observations overlap.
- Daily sampling missed 28.5% of six-hour rapid-intensification storm labels in Atlantic HURDAT2 in 1982-2023
Read for the distinction between overlapping windows and storm incidence. Different dataset and scope; no code reused.