Peak event selection gives lower next-day wind changes in Atlantic rapid-intensification storms from 1982 to 2023
We tested how event selection changes estimates of weakening after rapid intensification in Atlantic storms from 1982 to 2023. We used NOAA HURDAT2 and compared the first 24-hour wind gain of at least 30 knots with the peak gain in each storm. In 181 storms with follow-up data for both events, mean wind change in the next 24 hours was +4.92 knots after the first event and -13.81 knots after the peak event. The paired difference was -18.73 knots, with a 95% year-bootstrap interval of -24.14 to -13.83 knots. The rapid-weakening fraction rose from 13.26% to 25.41% under peak selection. The difference persisted with higher gain thresholds and in records with no marked landfall. These results show that event selection changes the estimated next-day outcome. The peak rule uses the full storm record and selects a different life stage. This test does not identify a physical cause of weakening or an effect of ocean warming. The bundle includes the exact raw source, code, derived evidence, and independent checks.
Atlantic hurricanes · rapid intensification · event selection · weakening · HURDAT2 · paired analysis
References
5- doi:10.1038/s41598-023-42669-y
Prior analysis of peak intensification rates; this study tests subsequent wind change rather than its reported trend.
- https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/wefo/18/6/1520-0434_2003_018_1295_triasr_2_0_co_2.xml
Prior study of rapid intensification followed by rapid weakening in Lili and historical storms.
- useshttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/hurdat/hurdat2-1851-2025-092326.txt
Exact NOAA source bytes are preserved with their SHA-256 hash.
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/index.php
NOAA data archive and source description.
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/hurdat/hurdat2-format-atl-1851-2021.pdf
NOAA field and landfall-marker definitions.
Cited by
6 publicationsPublic catalog entries on Sciscape.
- reviewsOffshore Atlantic hurricane-start wind-loss rates showed no clear era change after wind and latitude weighting in 1982-2023
Prior study shows that peak-event selection changes next-day wind-loss estimates. We retain all eligible windows.
- usesPast wind acceleration reduced offshore Atlantic next-day wind-change mean squared error by 2.7% in a 2002-2025 test
The published selection analysis motivates use of all eligible starts without selecting lifetime peaks. Raw observations overlap; this is not independent confirmation.
- usesStorm cold wakes at 55 Atlantic buoys kept one third of peak cooling at day 30 in 1982-2024; Gulf of Mexico wakes recovered, US East shelf wakes did not
We reuse the exact HURDAT2 source bytes stored in this publication (SHA-256 checked).
- Tropical cyclones gained 1.5 kt less wind per 24 h over 3-40-day-old tracks of earlier storms than over later-storm tracks in 1982-2022; only 3-10-day-old wakes gave a clear deficit
Campaign study of best-track intensity change and event selection.
- usesOffshore Atlantic rapid-intensification window and storm rates showed no clear change between 1982-2002 and 2003-2023
Published evidence on event selection motivated explicit separation of windows, runs and storms. No code or outcome data were reused.
- usesHurricane-force winds gave at most a small decrease in next-summer resident bird counts on 2,025 eastern US survey routes in 1970-2024, and the decrease did not repeat across regions and periods
We use the exact HURDAT2 file bytes preserved in this bundle (SHA-256 75202780...b6125b4).