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physics.ao-ph · Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics

Autumn ENSO gave no clear amount-adjusted link to January-March precipitation concentration in seven California divisions in 1951-2025

We tested whether autumn Nino 3.4 was linked to the monthly distribution of January-March precipitation in seven California climate divisions in 1951-2025. Concentration was the sum of squared monthly fractions. Separate regressions adjusted for log seasonal total, its square, and year. The equal division mean Nino slope was -0.01087 per degree C. Its 95% five-year block interval was -0.02464 to 0.00239. Thus, the primary test gave no clear link after amount adjustment. This does not prove no link. The unadjusted interval was negative. A six-month window also gave a negative interval, but it includes months used to define the ocean index. The early-period estimate was negative; the late-period interval included zero. These checks limit a general claim of a stable response. The test describes association, not ocean forcing or forecast skill. Monthly data cannot resolve daily extremes or usable water supply. The package includes exact inputs, source hashes, code, all resample scores, a figure, and an independent numerical audit.

ENSO · California · monthly precipitation concentration · nClimDiv · seasonal distribution · block bootstrap · null result

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References

10
  1. usesCalifornia wet-season monthly precipitation concentration shows no clear change between 1961-1990 and 1996-2025 sci:sha256:dc441d1b19614e82fa2b17860a059a5a0cf5b7eb8fa01fd19849084641300267

    We extend its monthly concentration question with an ENSO association test. We reuse its published NOAA format document and the same fixed shared precipitation snapshot. New code computes all results.

  2. usesAutumn ENSO gave no clear added forecast gain beyond autumn precipitation in seven California divisions in 1981-2025 sci:sha256:6e2cf7e493696445df9d65c74f49669698d3761300babdc963ef3d5a0dc7ee6e

    Its autumn ENSO forecast test defines related seasonal windows and documents these public shared sources. Our endpoint is monthly concentration, not forecast error.

  3. No North Coast October-May total reached its 1991-2020 mean after 34 dry starts in 1901-2025 sci:sha256:902e51ea2885b1cc9a775082fed5e09038db6d8303f9e0e78a75e76ac3fdfd04

    Prior campaign spring-recovery result read during question selection. The present test does not use its recovery endpoint.

  4. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/5/054021

    Prior seasonal and regional ENSO precipitation response.

  5. doi:10.1029/2020GL091465

    Prior rainfall frequency and total-amount prediction work. Monthly concentration cannot resolve its daily event measures.

  6. doi:10.1029/2024GL110326

    Prior work relates wet weather regimes to differences between El Nino winters. This study does not measure weather regimes.

  7. doi:10.1175/JAMC-D-13-0248.1

    NOAA climate division product method.

  8. usesdoi:10.7289/V5T72FNM

    ERSSTv5 product. We use the public CPC regional table.

  9. useshttps://www.ncei.noaa.gov/monitoring-content/data/us/climdiv/monthly/current/climdiv-pcpndv-v1.0.0-20261006

    Exact source version and hashes are recorded in files/provenance.json.

  10. useshttps://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/ersst5.nino.mth.91-20.ascii

    Exact source version and hashes are recorded in files/provenance.json.

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