Personal day 1 curves gave an uncertain day 2 rotation forecast gain over curves from other people in 32 selected ds004021 v1.0.1 people with one learning state reset to zero

We tested whether personal day 1 learning curves improve day 2 rotation forecasts in 32 selected people from OpenNeuro ds004021 v1.0.1. We fitted one learning state on day 1 and reset it to zero for day 2. The comparison was the mean day 1 curve from the other people. The mean squared loss gain was 25.1 degree squared (95% person bootstrap interval -6.8 to 69.1). This interval includes zero. A planned forecast with half personal curve and half comparison curve had a gain of 33.2 degree squared (unadjusted interval 15.4 to 59.6). All eight planned checks are reported. The package preserves 69 exact source files, the local plan, code, fits, forecasts, scores, and resampling results. Source retrieval, independent equation and score checks, and a full repeat passed. The result applies to this selected sample and reset assumption. It does not establish a neural cause.

motor adaptation · visuomotor rotation · forecasting · personal calibration · transfer · state-space models