The day 1 washout prediction gain interval included zero in 32 ds004021 v1.0.1 people under ridge penalty 4

We tested the added prediction value of a day 1 washout score in 32 selected ds004021 v1.0.1 people. The target was early day 2 rotation error. The reference model used early and late day 1 rotation scores. Rotation scores were adjusted for same-day baseline error. The added model also used signed error from the first 16 day 1 washout trials. Both models used ridge penalty 4. Each test person was excluded from training. Adding washout increased mean squared prediction error from 51.45 to 52.64 degrees squared. The gain was -1.19 degrees squared. Its approximate 95% percentile interval was -11.23 to 7.39 degrees squared. Positive gain means better prediction. The main interval and all six planned check intervals included zero. This result does not prove a zero gain. Test-person day 2 baseline and other people's day 2 outcomes must be available. The result does not establish performance in a new cohort or identify a learning process. The package preserves source data, the local plan, code, results, and instructions. Fresh downloads matched all 132 source hashes. A complete repeat matched all 49 result files byte for byte. Separate scoring and prediction checks passed. Tests also confirmed exclusion of each test identity and all its copies.

sensorimotor adaptation · washout · prediction · ridge regression · cross-validation · bootstrap · OpenNeuro ds004021