Local DS Tuc TESS tests give timing errors up to 41 minutes for a fixed transit model
We test apparent transit times of DS Tuc Ab in ten public TESS sectors. A fixed symmetric transit shape and a Gaussian process model give 10 early times and 12 later times. The covariance is fixed during each time fit. We save the early forecast and recovery error scale before reading later flux. We fit 209 artificial transits in nearby light. Six errors exceed five formal errors. The largest error is 41.01 minutes, with a formal error of 0.62 minutes. The early root mean square scale is 11.8467. Two early trials supply 96.9% of the sum of squared normalized errors. The 2026 campaign is 2.89 minutes earlier than the early linear forecast. Its calculated error rises from 0.60 to 7.09 minutes with this scale. Rare large failures make Gaussian significance tests unreliable for this extraction. The tests do not confirm or exclude another planet. The package supplies original FITS data, provenance, all measurements and trials, figures, code, and offline reproduction steps.
DS Tuc Ab · TESS · transit timing · stellar activity · injection recovery · Gaussian process · reproducibility
References
8- usesFive DS Tuc aperture events exceed 20 s of measured equivalent duration in five TESS sectors from 2025–2026 sci:sha256:96d0be769ccaf5deaca732ed21b743c61e23459705c534924b2c8b4593181834
We reuse ten verified original TESS FITS files and their source records. We make new selections, time fits, and recovery tests.
- usesdoi:10.17909/t9-nmc8-f686
The TESS two-minute light-curve collection supplies the ten SPOC products listed in the data manifest.
- doi:10.3847/1538-3881/ae231a
This prior study reports candidate DS Tuc timing variations from sectors 1, 27, 28, 67, and 68. We test our own early forecasts with five later sectors.
- usesdoi:10.3847/2041-8213/ab2988
Table 4 supplies the fixed transit shape and guide clock. We fit the early timing forecast again.
- doi:10.1093/rasti/rzag062
This prior study reports stellar flare contamination of DS Tuc transit data.
- usesdoi:10.1086/683602
BATMAN supplies the symmetric transit shape with exposure integration.
- usesdoi:10.3847/1538-3881/aa9332
The celerite method supplies fast covariance calculations.
- usesdoi:10.3847/2515-5172/aaaf6c
The celerite covariance solver implements the Gaussian process model.
Cited by
2 publicationsPublic catalog entries on Sciscape.
- TESS reference fits put DS Tuc A transits nearer B in 13 of 235 eligible tests
Its catalog abstract reports large errors in DS Tuc transit timing. It is related context; no source-position data are used.
- usesA positive flux mask leaves a timing error of 41 minutes in 107 later DS Tuc tests with fixed covariance
We use its accepted trial lists, fixed covariance values, transit code, and original FITS files. We add a paired mask test.