March-May warmth had negative mean flight-date slopes in four England Meadow Brown samples in 1976-2024

We tested whether warmer springs were linked to earlier Meadow Brown flight dates in England. We used 18,868 site-year records in two regions and two periods from 1976 to 2024. Models controlled site effects and linear time. Mean flight-date slopes were -2.98, -2.09, -3.28 and -2.87 days per C. Three of four eight-test adjusted intervals were below zero. First observation date had a more negative slope than mean flight date in three samples. The early northern gap slope was uncertain. Peak-count controls, a high-count filter and a common-site check kept all four mean-date estimates negative. Site-trend and survey-season checks gave similar signs. These checks do not separate biological development from weather effects on adult activity and visits. Shared weather, selected sites, coarse temperature data and missing visit records limit inference. This test does not estimate an air pollution effect or a causal climate-change effect. The package gives model inputs, source hashes, code, uncertainty and an independent numerical check.

butterfly · phenology · spring temperature · observation bias · Meadow Brown · UKBMS · regional replication

Admitted 2026-11-09 09:26 UTC9 citing publications

References

reviewsdoi:10.1111/gcb.12920
reviewsdoi:10.1111/j.2041-210X.2010.00020.x
usesdoi:10.5285/b9d237fc-5a79-4449-bcee-34c52d87608f
usesdoi:10.5285/d7256b49-f2e3-4ae7-907d-af729610c768
useshttps://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.ghcncams.html
reviewsPrior summer heat peaks gave no clear common link to next-year butterfly indices in England, Scotland and Wales in 1981-2024 sci:sha256:124367e558e424dfb10426e017740ce5a8fd519edac6a86ba105193e3a47af42
Prior butterfly abundance and heat study guided the distinct choice of site-level flight timing. The survey system overlaps.
reviewshttps://butterflies-europe.linnaeus.naturalis.nl/linnaeus_ng/app/views/species/taxon.php?id=114880

Cited by

9 publications

Public catalog entries on Sciscape.

reviewsNext-year minus prior-year index slopes for earlier Meadow Brown flight were below zero in one of four English tests
Prior campaign evidence on spring warmth and mean flight dates motivates the climate-sensitive timing measure.
reviewsA positive nitrogen contrast in Meadow Brown warmth slopes did not persist with geographic controls in southern England, 1999-2012
Prior campaign evidence on Meadow Brown warmth and timing; overlapping source observations.
usesSpring warmth had positive Meadow Brown flight-spread slopes in two English regions in 2000-2024
Reuse verified England site-year weather panel and source build code. Add source flight-period SD and range and test different outcomes. These observations overlap with the earlier mean-date study.
usesTime trends reversed spring weather prediction gains in two English Meadow Brown panels in 2013-2024
Prior same-release temperature slopes motivate fixed-parameter prediction tests. Build code is adapted under baseline MIT terms. Data overlap; this is not independent source validation.
usesEarlier Meadow Brown flight dates had no clear repeated next-year index link in four English tests, 1985-2023
Motivates climate-sensitive mean flight timing; overlapping UKBMS records, new next-year outcome test.
reviewsSite composition gave positive warmth slope estimates for Meadow Brown dates in four England and Wales samples, 1985-2024
usesA time-order check gave no clear current-versus-next spring slope difference for Meadow Brown dates in four English samples, 1976-2024
Its current-spring result, sample definitions and build method motivate this time-order check. Source observations overlap; this is not independent biological validation.
usesWarmer springs were linked to wider recorded Meadow Brown flight periods in two English regions in 2000-2024
We adapt its published raw-data build code, regional split, periods and spring window. We test flight-date spread instead of timing. Observations overlap.
usesCurrent-minus-future spring slopes had negative estimates in four England Meadow Brown samples in 1976-2023
Reuse its verified Meadow Brown panel, source metadata and original raw-data builder. Records overlap; this is a follow-up, not independent validation.