Prior summer heat peaks gave no clear common link to next-year butterfly indices in England, Scotland and Wales in 1981-2024
We tested whether a short summer heat peak was linked to a lower butterfly index in the next year, beyond seasonal mean temperature and rain. We used a fixed set of nine species in England, Scotland and Wales in retained 1981-2024 records. A fixed weather-grid mask removed changes in coastal coverage. Four outcome years per country failed daily weather coverage, leaving 40 annual outcomes. The heat measure was the highest three-day mean daily maximum temperature minus its summer mean. Full-record slopes were +0.0123, -0.0127 and +0.0068 log10 index units per C. All three corrected intervals included zero. All six country and period intervals also included zero. Coverage and model-choice checks did not establish a common adverse link. Small early samples, correlated country weather, coarse exposure, selected species, source-index error and unknown detection limit inference. The result does not establish absence of a heat effect or a causal climate-change effect. The package adds daily regional heat data, source-mask audits, exact source hashes, code, all estimates and numerical checks.
butterflies · weather extremes · summer heat · observation bias · regional replication · null result · daily temperature · UKBMS
References
11- reviewsEstimates for prior warm, dry summers changed sign between two abundance measures for nine butterflies in Britain in 1980-2024 sci:sha256:e2f2fce4a97d3f2fb9cb7b3a4d09597042952c93f8b42cd67bd145eeb704d3de
Prior seasonal-weather and response-measure test uses the same biological source. We rebuild inputs and add a daily heat-peak measure.
- reviewsWeather square terms changed interaction signs in two of three models of nine British butterfly species in 1981-2024 sci:sha256:4a72551f55388d87b90d2f9e5fa1e35f7f47bd534d3ebbf8140a232ae4afd95a
Prior seasonal-weather model-shape test shares the same nine species. Our exposure test differs; this is not independent biological data.
- reviewsCurrent and prior summer rain slopes gave no repeated nonzero sum for nine British butterflies in 1981-2024 sci:sha256:6978841b5b477a0c75124016966017939d0cba653c3e3da6f67ea06ef3ee668a
Prior observation-offset restriction for rain motivates a model review. We do not apply its zero-sum restriction to a free lag-index model.
- usesdoi:10.5285/a70d8b0b-0ef5-484e-8195-42bcfd818229
- usesdoi:10.1111/biom.12506
- reviewsdoi:10.1111/1365-2656.12594
- reviewsdoi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.176318
- useshttps://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.cpc.globaltemp.html
- useshttps://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/maps-and-data/uk-and-regional-series
- useshttps://www.geoboundaries.org/api/current/gbOpen/GBR/ADM1/
- useshttps://media.githubusercontent.com/media/wmgeolab/geoBoundaries/9469f09/releaseData/gbOpen/GBR/ADM1/geoBoundaries-GBR-ADM1.geojson
Cited by
13 publicationsPublic catalog entries on Sciscape.
- reviewsFirst and mean Orange-tip dates had no clear temperature slope difference in four English samples in 1980-2024
Prior British butterfly weather study uses country abundance indices from UKBMS. This study uses site timing from the same scheme. It is not independent validation of its abundance results.
- reviewsApril-June warmth gave no clear repeated link to the Ringlet and Meadow Brown flight-date gap in England and Wales, 1980-2024
Prior country-level heat and butterfly index test. We use the same monitoring programme but a different site-level paired timing outcome. This is not an independent source replication.
- reviewsMarch-May warmth had negative mean flight-date slopes in four England Meadow Brown samples in 1976-2024
Prior butterfly abundance and heat study guided the distinct choice of site-level flight timing. The survey system overlaps.
- usesA stable heat observation offset was not rejected in nine British butterfly models for 1981-2024
We use the completely verified unchanged model panel and design and covariance code. That study stated but did not test the rho-weighted observation-offset restriction. Our biological observations overlap.
- reviewsFirst and mean Orange-tip dates had no clear difference in spring warmth slopes in three British countries in 1990-2024
Country weather and survey-bias context. The source system overlaps, but our site-level flight-date outcome differs from its abundance index.
- Late flights of British multivoltine butterflies preceded 8% higher next-year site abundance in 1976-2024, and the Wall showed no lost-generation decrease
Related campaign test of prior summer heat and next-year British butterfly indices.
- Butterflies with low-nitrogen host plants did not have more negative trends at UK transects with high nitrogen deposition in 1990-2024
Campaign analysis of UKBMS indices and weather.
- The 1995 drought collapse of six British butterfly species did not repeat at similar size after the 2003, 2006, 2018 or 2022 droughts on UK transects, 1989-2024
Related campaign study of summer heat peaks and next-year butterfly indices.
- Host-plant nitrogen preference did not predict faster butterfly gains at higher nitrogen deposition on 3,409 British transects in 1985-2024
Related campaign study that uses UKBMS data.
- reviewsFirst-date warmth slopes were more negative than mean-date slopes for Meadow Brown at 120 England sites in both 1980-2001 and 2002-2024
Prior campaign test of butterfly abundance and heat. Our test uses a different phenology dataset from the same monitoring scheme.
- Six drought-sensitive British butterflies fell less after the 2003, 2018 and 2022 dry summers than after 1995, and semi-natural land cover did not reduce the later falls
Related campaign test of summer heat peaks and next-year butterfly indices.
- UK butterflies with low-nitrogen host plants did not decrease more than other species at transects with high nitrogen deposition in Great Britain, 1986-2024
Earlier campaign study of British butterfly indices and summer weather.
- reviewsSpring warmth gave no clear repeated link to the butterfly survey-coverage gap in England and Wales in 1980-2024
Prior climate-index analysis explains the need to distinguish observation effects from population effects. We test a different outcome.