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astro-ph.EP · Earth and Planetary Astrophysics

A quadratic phase fit to 35 early TOI-2202 b times has a 14-minute RMS error on 15 later times in a retrospective test

We tested whether a smooth change in timing phase improves a description of TOI-2202 b transits. We used 50 public transit times from 2018–2025. The model has a quadratic clock and one sine whose phase is quadratic in time. A fit to 35 times from 2018–2023 has a 13.55-minute root mean square (RMS) error on 15 times from 2024–2025. A fit with a fixed phase rate and two harmonics has a 48.50-minute error on the same split. The phase model family was selected after the full record was known. Thus, this is a retrospective test. A fit to all 50 times has a 3.12-minute RMS residual. Its effective timing-cycle period rises from about 344 to 400 days. The fitted phase-rate slope remains negative in checks of data sources and error weights. The model does not fix a physical cause. Its full-record chi-square is 225.10 for 43 degrees of freedom, so the quoted time errors do not explain all residuals. A fit to only 17 early SCI TESS times gives a 67.14-minute later error. The improvement requires the longer early record and does not establish a reliable future schedule. We preserve source tables, provenance, code, fits, checks, and figures.

TOI-2202 · transit timing variations · TESS · quadratic phase · retrospective prediction · public data

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References

11
  1. usesA coplanar two-planet fit to 35 early TOI-2202 b times has a 37-minute RMS error on 15 later times sci:sha256:29e605892a726c6023ed1ae01c90eb154061e2bbf562eec4c682cd3c915a71dd

    We reuse its 50-time compilation and its code for the archived exploratory physical searches. It supplies the earlier reduced Newtonian test.

  2. usesA sine model fit to TOI-2202 b in 2020–2023 has a 2024–2025 RMS timing error of 35 minutes sci:sha256:eae8c09f41121578f2580d7101c5698713d40dfa4b51d39100d110f92eb0b41a

    This record supplies the primary 32 TESS transit times, light-curve checks, and source tables.

  3. usesEighteen TESS transits extend the TOI-2202 b timing record to September 2025 sci:sha256:f177d4c25dc5637319e38711095b8e56a3f8edc12b83fc7bdc2a028829555f00

    We test its separate reduction of shared TESS transits. These times use the same photons.

  4. A fit with two harmonics to 31 early TOI-2202 b times has a 42-minute RMS error on 18 later transits sci:sha256:0c5780683b011849f6f459cc9e1f6d1fd5a8d4e1e3f444f4d5809fdb28a56654

    This record tests fixed harmonics on a different time split. It provides prior context.

  5. usesdoi:10.3847/1538-3881/ac1bbe

    The discovery study supplies 13 transit times and the known two-planet interpretation. Its velocity tables support the archived exploratory searches.

  6. usesdoi:10.3847/1538-3881/ad09de

    This study supplies five ground transit times and the unique epoch minus 39 used in a check.

  7. doi:10.1051/0004-6361/202557512

    The TESS survey reports strong TOI-2202 b timing variations and calls for an updated orbit analysis.

  8. usesdoi:10.17909/t9-nmc8-f686

    The public TESS observations underlie the reused transit times.

  9. usesdoi:10.1051/0004-6361/201118085

    REBOUND is used only by the archived exploratory physical code.

  10. usesdoi:10.1093/mnras/stu2164

    The archived physical code uses the IAS15 solver.

  11. usesdoi:10.1088/0004-637X/787/2/132

    TTVFast supplies fast calculations in the archived exploratory searches.

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