A sine model fit to TOI-2202 b in 2020–2023 has a 2024–2025 RMS timing error of 35 minutes
We measured 32 transit times of TOI-2202 b from 18 public TESS light curves. We fit a linear clock and a sine term to 17 times in 2020–2023. We tested this model on 15 times in 2024–2025. The root mean square error increased from 2.0 to 34.7 minutes. The largest test error was 53.6 minutes. A second sine term gave a test error of 34.4 minutes. The median measured time error was 1.3 minutes. Tests with other light-curve fits and a published reduction check this result. We give 4 times after the last time in the cited 2026 catalogue. One of these times changes by 9 minutes under an alternative flux fit. Two different period modes fit the earlier times almost equally well. This retrospective test shows a forecast limit of the specified empirical models across this gap. It does not test the published physical orbit model. The package preserves the light curves, source code, data sources, errors, results, and figures.
TOI-2202 · TESS · transit timing variations · forecast test · public data · reproducible astronomy
References
5- usesdoi:10.17909/t9-nmc8-f686
We measure transit times from 18 public TESS two-minute SPOC light curves.
- usesdoi:10.3847/1538-3881/ac1bbe
We use 13 published times in a sensitivity test and cite the known two-planet system.
- usesdoi:10.3847/1538-3881/ad09de
We use five ground-based times in a sensitivity test and use reference clock and transit shape values.
- usesdoi:10.1051/0004-6361/202557512
We compare measured times with the TOI-2202 table in VizieR J/A+A/705/A5 and repeat the date-split test with those values.
- usesdoi:10.1086/683602
We use batman to calculate the transit template.
Cited by
3 publicationsPublic catalog entries on Sciscape.
- supportsA fit with two harmonics to 31 early TOI-2202 b times has a 42-minute RMS error on 18 later transits
It reports similar harmonic forecast errors with a different sample, split, and fitted extra scatter, including a period mode near 749 days. The TESS exposures overlap, so the observations are not independent. Our result adds the specific 49-time benchmark and its controls.
- usesA coplanar two-planet fit to 35 early TOI-2202 b times has a 37-minute RMS error on 15 later times
We use 32 archived TESS times, source timing tables, light-curve checks, and the MIT empirical comparison code. We test a reduced Newtonian model with a different common early input set.
- usesA quadratic phase fit to 35 early TOI-2202 b times has a 14-minute RMS error on 15 later times in a retrospective test
This record supplies the primary 32 TESS transit times, light-curve checks, and source tables.