A size model has 63% lower root mean square wait error than a mean rule for J0537−6910 in a five-pulsar test with present catalog values

We test whether glitch size helps to predict the wait to the next listed glitch. The test uses the present Jodrell Bank catalog, with 141 later waits in five primary pulsars. At each event, a linear model with nonnegative intercept and slope uses only earlier completed pairs. The baseline is the mean of the same earlier waits. The first fit uses 10 pairs. For PSR J0537−6910, root mean square error falls from 54.57 to 20.34 days, a reduction of 62.7%. The size-to-mean error ratio is 0.373. Its conditional block bootstrap range is 0.294–0.463. The other primary ratios are 1.616 for the Crab, 1.003 for Vela, 1.050 for J1341−6220, and 0.968 for J1740−3015. The small J1740−3015 gain reverses when both fits use only their last 10 pairs. The J0537−6910 gain remains large under the declared history controls and assumed measurement ranges. Prior work established its size–wait relation. This study adds a common chronological benchmark and saved event-level forecasts. A separate scalar calculation checks all 147 primary and secondary forecasts. The input values can contain later timing revisions. Missing glitches and incomplete observing coverage can change a listed wait. The result is a retrospective catalog test, with no claim of real-time forecast performance or a new physical mechanism. The package preserves selected source facts, code, provenance, scores, figures, and reproduction commands.

pulsar glitches · PSR J0537-6910 · waiting times · chronological prediction · public astronomical data · reproducible benchmark · Jodrell Bank catalog · measurement revisions