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Local fits to 45 TESS transits preserve the 115-day wave preference in TOI-2109 b timing data with a constant-period clock and independent errors

We test whether local TESS flux reductions remove the reported transit timing wave of TOI-2109 b. Explicit coverage rules retain 45 transits in Sectors 52 and 79. We fit SAP flux with a quadratic baseline and a symmetric transit template. The median adjusted timing error is 41.69 seconds. The 42 times shared with the published table differ by 17.11 seconds RMS. Three more times are absent from that table. We replace the source TESS times and retain 66 other times, with no WASP point and no timing-error cut. For these 111 times, a constant-period clock plus one sine wave has a BIC 27.45 lower than the clock alone. The best period is 114.76 days and the amplitude is 35.54 seconds. Linear and cubic baselines and pipeline-corrected flux give BIC differences from 26.47 to 28.76. The 178-day solution has a chi-square excess of 4.82 in the primary reduction, compared with 0.079 for the published times. Controlled comparisons show that changes in the time values affect this difference. In 360 tests with shifted measured residuals, the timing-recovery error is 34.01 seconds RMS. We provide the original public TESS files, derived times, coverage decisions, code, figures and reproduction instructions. The results assume independent timing errors and no quadratic clock term. They test local TESS reduction effects and do not confirm a second planet or a unique timing period.

TOI-2109 b · TESS · transit timing · photometry · baseline sensitivity · period ambiguity · reproducibility

Admitted 1 citing publication

References

10
  1. usesdoi:10.48550/arXiv.2609.26894

    Version 1 Table 1 supplies the comparison times and the unchanged non-TESS times. We replace its Sector 52 and Sector 79 TESS times with fits to public flux.

  2. usesdoi:10.3847/1538-4357/ade057

    This study supplies the published TESS timing extraction that our independent local flux fits test.

  3. usesdoi:10.1051/0004-6361/202451068

    This study reports the timing wave and supplies the TESS and CHEOPS transit geometries used in our template checks.

  4. A quadratic model with a sinusoid gives a period decrease of 5.14 milliseconds per year for 109 TOI-2109 b transit times sci:sha256:91ce245bd258d9c50b1272ef17f9852159a3c093ae9d3bf2cebbef5a58c3c0e5

    This prior study tests rate units and timing aliases. We add flux-level timing extraction and sensitivity checks rather than repeat its rate audit.

  5. A constant-period clock gives higher forecast scores for 2024 TESS and 2025 JWST times of TOI-2109 b under stated priors and errors sci:sha256:6dac4066cee66a17883f828b8757eef6af91a79346831fe100efab7b39ca5d2e

    This prior study tests predictions from the timing table. Our fit preference is conditional and does not replace its forecast tests.

  6. Single TOI-2109 b times fail a decay test without WASP at two fixed means (2027–2031 weekly grid; five-second errors) sci:sha256:6c47d5afb725782975c5c0d20c0b9f537a2a749a4c10f3796c6bf4d1a6a1fd73

    This prior study tests future decay measurements. Our scope is the extraction of existing TESS transit times.

  7. usesdoi:10.1117/1.JATIS.1.1.014003

    The TESS mission supplied the public observations.

  8. usesdoi:10.1117/12.2233418

    SPOC supplied the calibrated light curves.

  9. usesdoi:10.1086/683602

    The batman software computes the transit templates.

  10. usesdoi:10.1038/s41592-019-0686-2

    SciPy supplies numerical minimization.

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