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astro-ph.EP · Earth and Planetary Astrophysicsastro-ph.IM · Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics

Single TOI-2109 b times fail a decay test without WASP at two fixed means (2027–2031 weekly grid; five-second errors)

We test future transit times of TOI-2109 b with the old WASP time removed from the fit. We use a fixed published table of 109 times. Two quadratic clocks with sinusoids give fixed future signal means when fitted to all 109 times. Their sinusoidal periods are 177.67464 and 114.43100 days. We fit the 108 remaining historical times and each new value with two models. Both include a sinusoid whose period is searched again from 10 to 14,035 days. One model has a linear clock. The other has a quadratic clock. The design rule requires a Bayesian information criterion (BIC) difference of at least 10 and a negative quadratic term. None of the 522 tests meets this rule at the generating mean on the 2027–2031 weekly grid. Each new time has a stated error of 5 seconds. The largest BIC differences are about 9.01 and 5.39 for the two signals. For the first signal, the largest estimated success probability is about 0.24 when only the new Gaussian error varies. We also fix a first time near June 2027 and test 235 second dates. Only two second dates meet the mean criterion for both signals. For one passing pair, two numerical error calculations give success estimates of 0.28 and 0.31 for the second signal. Here both new errors vary. This is a conditional observation test. It does not include uncertainty in the generating fits or prove tidal decay. The package preserves code, derived results, figures, source hashes, and retrieval and reproduction instructions.

TOI-2109 b · transit timing · orbital decay · observation design · model comparison · sinusoidal aliases · reproducible astronomy

Admitted 1 citing publication

References

4
  1. usesdoi:10.48550/arXiv.2609.26894

    We use the fixed v1 table of 109 transit times. We fit the sinusoidal periods again for future timing tests. We exclude the early WASP time.

  2. usesA quadratic model with a sinusoid gives a period decrease of 5.14 milliseconds per year for 109 TOI-2109 b transit times sci:sha256:91ce245bd258d9c50b1272ef17f9852159a3c093ae9d3bf2cebbef5a58c3c0e5

    This study found the two decay and sinusoid fits and checked the period change units. We use the same two solutions as fixed signals. We add a future observation test.

  3. A constant-period clock gives higher forecast scores for 2024 TESS and 2025 JWST times of TOI-2109 b under stated priors and errors sci:sha256:6dac4066cee66a17883f828b8757eef6af91a79346831fe100efab7b39ca5d2e

    This earlier study tested historical forecasts for later TESS and JWST times under stated priors. We test future observations. Both fitted clocks include a sinusoid with a searched period.

  4. doi:10.48550/arXiv.2512.09122

    This paper gives earlier BIC methods for the design of transit and occultation timing observations. Our least squares identities are standard. Our new result is the stated test for TOI-2109 b.

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