Companion updates gave a mean forecast error ratio of 0.981 in 26 selected Kepler pairs with a fixed wave ratio
Can later transit times of one planet improve forecasts of another planet? We tested 26 selected Kepler pairs in 25 stars. We used a fixed public timing catalog and early data through BJD minus 2454900 = 1100. Early timing evidence set the target and companion labels. We fitted an opposite-phase wave and fixed its amplitude ratio and beat period. For each later target transit, we added companion times that preceded the early predicted target date by at least one day. All later target measurements stayed out of the fits. We scored 703 target forecasts. The equal-star geometric mean of updated error divided by early fixed-ratio error was 0.9807. The descriptive 95 percent star bootstrap interval was 0.9501 to 1.0025. Twelve pairs improved, thirteen became worse, and one did not change. Median weighted RMS errors were 13.10 minutes before updates and 13.14 minutes after updates. Mean ratios were 0.9541 against separate early waves and 0.6760 against early linear clocks. The direct update gain was small, and its interval included no change. This test does not establish a reliable gain for each pair. The package preserves all forecast rows, selection decisions, source hashes, code, figures, and conditional simulations. The result applies to this retrospective catalog test with a fixed wave ratio. It does not establish a new planet or a physical cause.
Kepler · transit timing variations · forecast validation · companion timing · public data · reproducible research
References
9- usesExact opposite phases gave almost the same mean timing forecast error as separate phases in 26 selected Kepler pairs sci:sha256:1d6ed6a724ffbaf0dd26ccb17aeff5ccdf60924f3ebf41a367149a4497d58597
We use the verified data package and the unchanged early opposite-phase fit. We test the extra effect of later companion data.
- usesA sine model gave smaller later timing errors than a linear model for 23 of 26 selected Kepler planet pairs sci:sha256:7cc6a1c1ae9085aad128b73ab10f78f82967c8385e8955219cb2461a5ef0032c
We use its unchanged parser, sample rules, early period estimates, and separate early models through the direct parent package.
- usesdoi:10.3847/0067-0049/225/1/9
Holczer et al. supplied the public Kepler timing catalog. Tables 2 and 3 give the timing input.
- usesdoi:10.26133/NEA4
The fixed NASA Exoplanet Archive KOI snapshot gives star identifiers, planet names, status, and orbital order.
- usesdoi:10.1088/0004-637X/761/2/122
The near-resonance timing theory gives the beat period. Exact opposite phases are a model assumption in this test.
- doi:10.1093/mnras/staf334
This prior work uses Kepler, K2, and later TESS data to update transit forecasts.
- doi:10.1051/0004-6361/202660305
This prior work fits transit times of several HIP 41378 planets to refine future transit forecasts. Joint timing forecasts are an established method.
- Sequential drift fits gave less timing error than rolling lines for 38 of 49 selected Kepler objects sci:sha256:8aa88b04b4dc8645c7e1efc1fff10369be2f5092184e241503796d38a7a04f1f
This prior SCI test used new target times to update a local drift forecast. Our test adds new companion times.
- A reference shift gave a lower 100-day geometric mean timing error than a full refit after three late times in 28 Kepler records with early correlation above 0.5 sci:sha256:1e986727ddee24b3bfd7bd13629de590db66e1d8afea571b16e65385fa83253c
This prior SCI test compared forecast updates after three new target times. Our test keeps all later target times out of the fit.
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