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Four TESS dimming times for TIC 25194908 do not fit a constant period under local flux fits and independent errors

We test whether four public TESS dimming times for TIC 25194908 fit a constant period. The period near 337.46 days was already reported in ExoFOP. We fit each event with an exposure-integrated trapezoid and a local flux baseline. We estimate timing errors with residual blocks from 30 to 480 minutes. At assumed cycles 0, 2, 5, and 7, a common epoch and period give chi-square 104.74 for two degrees of freedom. The sector-28 time is 94.6 minutes later than the line through sectors 3 and 90, with an estimated standard error of 9.5 minutes. The tested flux and shape choices give a difference from 85.0 to 104.6 minutes. This is a sensitivity range, not a confidence interval. An assumed extra independent event error of 30.7 minutes reduces chi-square to the 95% reference. The result depends on source association, local flux models, and independent timing errors. The target selection was exploratory. No planet or physical cause is confirmed. The package contains seven unchanged source light curves, source records, all timing results, figures, code, and reproduction instructions.

TESS · TIC 25194908 · transit timing · long-period planet candidates · public astronomical data · timing uncertainty · reproducible research

Admitted 1 citing publication

References

5
  1. usesdoi:10.1093/mnras/stad3783

    The candidate report supplies the original two events and the allowed period choices. We fit the source flux again.

  2. usesdoi:10.17909/t9-wpz1-8s54

    TESS-SPOC supplies the primary light curves for sectors 3, 28, and 65.

  3. usesdoi:10.17909/t9-r086-e880

    QLP supplies three light curves for extraction and baseline checks.

  4. usesdoi:10.1086/683602

    The batman transit model supplies the shape checks and noiseless injections.

  5. Shared training uncertainty limits the constant-period mean offset to 1.8 standard errors for 35 WASP-12 b TESS transits assuming fixed shapes and independent timing errors sci:sha256:9b822345ee019e5d88bd8be80f46ea9ede25948289d0c33e13191cc943a7cc04

    This prior timing study shows why common forecast uncertainty matters. We fit all four times together and include endpoint errors in a separate contrast. We reuse no code or data.

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