Forest-minus-open rain slope intervals included zero in four Swedish insect-catch samples in 2019

We tested whether forest habitat changes the precipitation slope of measured flying-insect catch. Four models used 3,120 catches at 143 Swedish traps in northern and southern sites and two periods in 2019. Models controlled trap, habitat-specific calendar blocks, temperature, latitude-specific season and duration. Forest-minus-open slope estimates were -0.0923, 0.0285, -0.0337 and 0.0507 log(1 + grams/day) per 5 mm/day. All 95 percent intervals included zero, as did all four-test intervals in seven sensitivity checks. The data do not establish a stable forest shelter effect. Only ten northern open traps and 7-9 time clusters per primary fit limit inference. Catches mix abundance, flight activity and capture. One year, selected sites and coarse weather prevent causal climate claims. No pollution effect is tested. The package gives code, aggregate evidence, a figure and exact source hashes. External record data stay outside the publication.

insect biomass · precipitation · forest habitat · observation bias · null result · Sweden