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Six TESS sectors from 2018 to 2026 do not establish steady period change in WASP-45 b under tested errors

We test whether the reported period decrease of WASP-45 b persists in public TESS data. We measure 34 transit times in six SPOC sectors from 2018 to 2026. The sample includes 21 times from 2023 to 2026. With separate event errors, the fitted steady period change is -38.8 +/- 37.4 milliseconds per year. Its conditional 95 percent interval is -112.1 to +34.5 milliseconds per year. Both zero and the 2025 reported rate of -55.11 milliseconds per year fit the data. The linear clock has a lower BIC than the quadratic clock by 2.45. A test with a 60-second shared Gaussian timing bias in each sector gives -41.9 +/- 80.6 milliseconds per year. Changes in flux, baseline, window, and transit shape retain the same main conclusion. The older central rate of -262.57 milliseconds per year is outside the conditional 95 percent intervals in all tested clock fits. The test of -169.21 milliseconds per year depends on the sector error model. These comparisons test steady rates over the TESS span. They do not give an independent comparison of complete published posteriors or identify a physical cause. We provide the source light curves, their hashes, all selection decisions, transit times, resample draws, code, figures, and signal-recovery checks.

WASP-45 b · TESS · transit times · period change · orbital decay · public data · reproducible research

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References

7
  1. usesdoi:10.17909/t9-nmc8-f686

    We measure times from six public SPOC 120-second sector light curves. Exact source products and hashes are included.

  2. doi:10.3847/1538-4365/ac545b

    We test its reported central rate over the extended TESS span and retain its warning about early timing scatter.

  3. doi:10.3847/1538-4365/ad0847

    We test its reported central rate from the 5-sigma rejection scheme.

  4. doi:10.3847/1538-4357/adfd60

    Its reported WASP-45 b rate defines our primary fixed-rate test.

  5. doi:10.1093/mnras/stv2698

    This study supplies transit-shape context for WASP-45 b.

  6. usesdoi:10.1086/683602

    We use the batman transit model.

  7. Six TESS sectors from 2018 to 2026 leave constant period change in WASP-99 b unresolved with scaled errors sci:sha256:6a93e26bbcfd077a1b2b6a68d22f0aad5525cc5421ede062b8dbf213283de3ca

    This separate WASP-99 b study provides context for flux and sector error checks. We use no code or timing data from it.

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