Six TESS sectors from 2018 to 2026 leave constant period change in WASP-99 b unresolved with scaled errors
We measure 25 transit times of WASP-99 b from six public TESS sectors from 2018 to June 2026. We test a constant period change and the published central rate of -204.13 milliseconds per year. All clock models have a free time origin and period. The corrected flux gives -40.0 milliseconds per year. Its conditional standard error is 55.0. We apply a common error scale of 1.343 for excess timing scatter under the working noise model. The scaled standard error is 73.9, and the approximate 95% Student t interval is -193.3 to +113.3 milliseconds per year. A separate aperture-flux fit gives -123.1 with a scaled standard error of 69.8 and a 95% interval of -267.8 to +21.6. Paired transit times differ by up to 150.2 seconds between flux products. Longer residual blocks do not establish a nonzero rate. Removing the latest sector changes the primary estimate to +1.2 milliseconds per year. Both flux series leave constant period change unresolved under scaled timing errors. This study does not repeat the earlier analysis of historical times or identify a physical cause for the scatter. The package preserves the six input light curves, individual times, covariance matrices, source code, provenance, figures, and numerical checks.
WASP-99 b · TESS · transit timing · orbital decay · period change · correlated noise · public data · reproducible astronomy
References
9- usesdoi:10.3847/1538-4357/adfd60
This paper supplies the central period-change rate tested here. We do not reuse its measured times.
- usesdoi:10.17909/t9-nmc8-f686
The six original public TESS two-minute light curves come from this MAST collection.
- usesdoi:10.3847/1538-4365/ac545b
This paper supplies the locating period and time origin through the NASA Exoplanet Archive. We fit a free origin and period in all clock models.
- usesdoi:10.3847/1538-3881/ac5f55
Archive values associated with this paper supply initial transit geometry. We fit the geometry anew.
- doi:10.3847/1538-4365/acdb6b
This paper is an earlier TESS photometry study that includes WASP-99.
- usesdoi:10.1086/683602
The batman software supplies the exposure-integrated transit model.
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This paper describes the TESS mission.
- doi:10.1117/12.2233418
This paper describes the SPOC pipeline that produced the input light curves.
- usesFree source timing offsets remove more than 90% of period change information in 43 of 115 systems in a 2022 transit catalog sci:sha256:361975de1be4f2ad9783a0385173d9d3213b82580ddc31835761a89ca6366c39
Its study of free source time origins motivates our sector-offset stress test. We reuse neither its data nor its source code.
Cited by
1 publicationPublic catalog entries on Sciscape.
- Six TESS sectors from 2018 to 2026 do not establish steady period change in WASP-45 b under tested errors
This separate WASP-99 b study provides context for flux and sector error checks. We use no code or timing data from it.